North Korea Virtually Abandons Moratorium... Tensions Rise Again on the Korean Peninsula

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Military Specialist Yang Nak-gyu, Reporter Lee Ji-eun] South Korean and U.S. intelligence agencies have classified North Korea's two recent ballistic missile test launches as new intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). This indicates that North Korea has effectively abandoned its moratorium on nuclear tests and ICBM test launches, making additional sanctions inevitable. Tensions on the Korean Peninsula are expected to escalate again ahead of the next government’s inauguration.

On the 11th, the Ministry of National Defense stated, "After a detailed analysis of the ballistic missiles launched by North Korea on the 27th of last month and the 5th of this month, it is assessed that they are related to the new ICBM system first revealed during the Workers' Party anniversary parade in October 2020." The U.S. Department of Defense also released a statement around the same time under spokesperson John Kirby, disclosing the joint assessment between South Korea and the U.S. on this matter.

Previously, North Korea denied suspicions of ICBM launches, calling the ballistic missile launches, presumed to be Hwasong-17, "important tests for reconnaissance satellite development." The Hwasong-17 is larger in diameter and length than existing ICBMs and was dubbed the "monster ICBM" when unveiled. It is reported to be capable of carrying multiple warheads and has a maximum range of 13,000 to 15,000 km.

The Ministry of National Defense said, "It is judged that North Korea intended to test the performance of the missile, disguised as a space launch vehicle, ahead of a maximum range test launch." North Korean media also reported that Kim Jong-un, Chairman of the State Affairs Commission, visited the West Sea Satellite Launching Station, capable of launching long-range rockets convertible to ICBMs, and ordered renovations of the satellite rocket launch facilities.

As North Korea moves toward lifting the moratorium, concerns about military provocations are expected to increase around the time of President-elect Yoon Suk-yeol’s inauguration in May. April includes the Sun’s Day (April 15), Kim Il-sung’s birthday, and scheduled South Korea-U.S. joint military exercises. In particular, President-elect Yoon has labeled the current administration’s Korean Peninsula peace process policy a failure and is expected to adopt a hardline stance toward North Korea, which may provoke backlash.

It is known that neither the Ministry of National Defense nor the Joint Chiefs of Staff has yet reported or received a request to report to President-elect Yoon regarding North Korea’s ICBMs. Professor Kim Sung-han of Korea University, who contributed to Yoon Suk-yeol’s foreign and security policy formulation, stated, "We are taking the situation very seriously and support the U.S. sanctions measures against North Korea."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.