A 500-ton Giant Spaceship Will Crash to Earth in 10 Years [Reading Science]

Russia's Invasion of Ukraine Poses ISS Crash Threat
High Likelihood of Reality After 2030 at the Latest
"Concerns Over Marine Plastic Pollution, Space Treaty Violations, and Component Retrieval Competition"

▲International Space Station. [Photo by NASA]

[Asia Economy Reporter Kim Bong-su] "If a 500-ton giant spaceship made by humans falls into the middle of the South Pacific, marine pollution will be severe."

Recently, amid Russia's invasion of Ukraine and its threat to neglect the controlled descent of the International Space Station (ISS), jointly managed with the United States, the international scientific community is increasingly concerned that the disposal methods of such orbital spacecraft and satellites ultimately lead to marine and environmental pollution.

According to the U.S. space media 'Space.com' on the 8th, space powers have so far been dumping expired space stations, large launch vehicles, and space station debris into the 'spacecraft cemetery' located in the middle of the South Pacific. Representative examples include Russia's Mir space station and China's Tiangong-1 space station. The U.S. also crashed the Skylab test space station into the ocean south of Australia in 1979.

The problem is that in the future, gigantic spacecraft incomparable to previous ones will be dumped into the South Pacific. The ISS, for example, was first installed in 1998 and has aged over more than 30 years. It was scheduled to operate only until 2024 and then be guided to crash into the 'spacecraft cemetery.' However, the recent decision by the U.S. government to invest budget and extend its lifespan until 2030 has brought some relief. The ISS is the largest spacecraft ever built by humans. It weighs 470 tons, measures 108.5 meters in length and 72.8 meters in width?about the size of a World Cup soccer stadium?and is the most expensive single structure. If dumped into the ocean, the environmental impact would be devastating.

Environmental activists are concerned that marine pollution caused by the 11 million tons of plastic waste dumped into the ocean annually will worsen. Britta Watzli, Senior Director at the nonprofit 'Marine Plastic Research Institute for Ocean Protection,' said, "We should not expect the ocean to maintain its purification function indefinitely while dumping waste," adding, "Considering the materials used in the ISS's interior and exterior, there are concerns about the impact on marine organisms and ecosystems, and this is not an appropriate way to utilize the ocean."

On the other hand, some argue that the ocean is a safer alternative than the extreme scenario of crashing on land, and that most of the spacecraft burns up upon re-entry into the atmosphere, so it is not a major concern. Dwight Steven Boniecki, a director who made a film about the mass hysteria caused by the fear of the Skylab space station crash in 1979, is a representative supporter of this view. Director Boniecki pointed out, "The space station will mostly burn up upon re-entry into the atmosphere," and "There was mass hysteria in 1979 when Skylab was expected to crash overhead."

Legal issues are also being raised. The 1967 United Nations (UN) 'Outer Space Treaty' stipulates in Article 9 that space must not be polluted or interfere with other countries' activities, and that no negative changes should be caused to Earth's environment. The ISS contains numerous parts made with advanced and security technologies, and if it falls into the ocean, there may be countries or individuals targeting those parts. While the Outer Space Treaty agrees that countries will not retrieve such parts in outer space, the situation changes if they fall into the ocean.

Joanne Irene Gavrinovitz, a law professor at the University of Mississippi, said, "The ISS may break apart or burn up upon re-entry into Earth's atmosphere, but the Outer Space Treaty clearly includes the concept of protecting Earth and preventing harmful changes," adding, "If the space station falls into the ocean, including international airspace, there are very strong maritime rescue laws, and there will definitely be people trying to take parts or fragments of the ISS."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.