China Likely to Increase Defense Budget by Over 7% Amid Ukraine Crisis

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[Asia Economy Beijing=Special Correspondent Jo Young-shin] Amid rapidly changing international situations such as Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the Chinese government is expected to increase its defense budget by more than 7% this year.

(Photo by AP Yonhap News)

The Chinese government will decide this year's economic and defense budget policy directions, including economic growth rate and defense spending, at the upcoming Two Sessions (National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and the National People's Congress) starting on the 4th. With geopolitical issues such as the Ukraine crisis emerging, this year's Chinese defense expenditure is drawing attention as it is expected to exceed the country's gross domestic product (GDP) target.

The state-run Global Times reported on the 4th that since China is facing security threats, it is highly likely that the defense budget will be increased by more than 7% this year. Last year, China's defense budget rose by 6.8% year-on-year to 1.35 trillion yuan (approximately 252 trillion KRW).

China's defense budget growth rate peaked at 12.2% in 2014, then declined annually to 10.1% in 2015, 7.6% in 2016, 7.0% in 2017, 8.1% in 2018, 7.5% in 2019, and 6.6% in 2020, before returning to an upward trend last year.

The increase in China's defense budget appears to be in consideration of changes in the international situation, such as Russia's invasion of Ukraine. When Russia annexed the Crimean Peninsula in 2014, the Chinese government increased its defense budget by 12.2% from the previous year to 808.2 billion yuan. Additionally, given the peak tensions between the U.S. and China over the Taiwan Strait, the defense budget is expected to be increased this year.

In fact, the Global Times cited military experts explaining the justification for the defense budget increase, stating that China faces security threats from U.S.-led containment alliances such as the Quad and AUKUS. The outlet reported that last year, the U.S. military conducted 13 aircraft carrier strike group exercises in the South China Sea under the pretext of "freedom of navigation," and at least 11 nuclear-powered submarines intruded into Chinese territorial waters.

The media also emphasized that Taiwan's imports of U.S. weapons pose a threat to China's security. It pointed out that Taiwan separatists continuously purchase advanced weapons such as Patriot air defense missiles from the U.S., which the outlet described as resistance and provocative acts against the mainland's reunification policy. It further argued that the border dispute with India remains unresolved, reiterating the need to increase the defense budget.

Chinese military experts unanimously agree that increasing the defense budget is inevitable this year to support the launch of China's third aircraft carrier, expand production of the J-20 stealth fighter, and improve the welfare of the People's Liberation Army as part of military modernization.

However, the Global Times emphasized that considering global concerns about China's military rise, China's defense spending accounts for only 1.3% of its GDP. This is only about half of the global average of 2.6%.

Nevertheless, when looking at the Chinese defense budget in absolute terms, one can discern China's ambition to become a military superpower. Since surpassing 1 trillion yuan for the first time in 2017, the defense budget has increased annually to 1.1069 trillion yuan in 2018, 1.1899 trillion yuan in 2019, and 1.268 trillion yuan in 2020. During this period, China's economic growth rate declined annually from 8.8% in 2017 to 6.6% in 2018, 6.0% in 2019, and 2.3% in 2020, yet defense spending continued to rise each year. Considering that China's defense budget was 670.2 billion yuan in 2012, it has more than doubled in ten years.

Meanwhile, the Chinese leadership announced a new military vision at the 5th Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China in 2020, aiming to achieve "military modernization" by 2027. The year 2027 marks the 100th anniversary of the founding of the People's Liberation Army.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.