Death Toll Surges... Government Insists on Easing Social Distancing

Cumulative Confirmed Cases Near 4 Million
Weekly Average Deaths 1.6 Times Higher
Around 20,000 Cases Possible in Four Months
Government Repeats "Pandemic Response Possible"
Experts Warn of "Healthcare System Overload" Concerns

On the 4th, at the temporary screening clinic at Seoul Station, where the number of new COVID-19 cases surged by about 70,000 in one day to 266,853, citizens are receiving rapid antigen tests. Photo by Hyunmin Kim kimhyun81@

Due to the rapid spread of the Omicron variant, the number of new COVID-19 cases exceeded 260,000 in a single day, setting another record high. Amid the surge in cases, nearly 200 deaths occurred daily, and the number of critically ill patients hospitalized approached 800. Concerns have been raised that the death toll from COVID-19 could reach 20,000 by May following the Omicron spread. In response, the government decided to ease the current social distancing measures, which limit private gatherings to six people and business hours to 10 p.m., by allowing restaurants and cafes to operate until 11 p.m.

186 Deaths... "20,000 Will Die Over Four Months"

According to the Central Disease Control Headquarters, as of midnight on the 4th, the number of new COVID-19 cases increased by 266,853 from the previous day, bringing the cumulative total to 3,958,326. The number of new cases first exceeded 100,000 (109,820) on the 18th of last month, then surpassed 170,000 (171,451) on the 23rd, and broke 210,000 (219,240) on the 2nd of this month. Although the number temporarily slowed to 198,803 on the 3rd, it increased again by more than 68,000 on this day. The cumulative number of cases has already exceeded 3.95 million, and it is expected to surpass 4 million by midnight on the 5th. After surpassing 1 million for the first time on the 6th of last month, it doubled to 2 million in 15 days on the 21st, and doubled again in just 12 days. The number of patients under home treatment was also counted at 925,662 as of this day.

The problem is that as COVID-19 cases surge, the number of deaths is also rising sharply. On the previous day alone, 186 people died, the highest number since the spread of COVID-19. The number of critically ill patients hospitalized also rose to 797, an increase of 31 from the day before, and more than double compared to two weeks ago (385 on February 18). Currently, 50.5% (1,385) of the 2,744 critical care beds nationwide secured by health authorities are in use.

Looking at the figures over the past week, the average daily new cases were 184,752, 1.42 times higher than the previous week's average of 129,903. During the same period, the average daily number of critically ill patients increased from 508 to 725 (1.43 times), and deaths rose from 71 to 114 per day (1.61 times). Considering that the increase in cases typically reflects in the number of critically ill patients 1-2 weeks later, and deaths 1-2 weeks after that, experts point out that daily deaths could surge to 400-500 by the end of this month.

Professor Eom Jung-sik of Gachon University Gil Medical Center's Department of Infectious Diseases said, "Assuming the Omicron wave, which intensified last month, continues until May with an average of 200,000 new cases daily, about 14-15% (around 30,000) of these will be people aged 60 and above. Considering the fatality rate in this group, daily deaths could reach 150-200." He added, "If the current trend continues, around 20,000 deaths are expected over the next four months."

Experts: "Why Ask Opinions That Won't Be Heard?"

Despite these concerns, the government repeatedly states that it has established sufficient response systems in preparation for the Omicron peak. Accordingly, from the 5th, the operating hours of 12 types of multi-use facilities, including restaurants and cafes, will be extended by one hour from the current 10 p.m. to 11 p.m.

Jeon Hae-cheol, the 2nd Deputy Head of the Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasures Headquarters (Minister of the Interior and Safety), said, "Since the third week of January, both the metropolitan area and non-metropolitan areas have maintained a 'high' level of COVID-19 risk. This week, the ICU bed occupancy rate increased to about 50%, but key quarantine indicators such as cumulative fatality rate and severity rate remain manageable within the current medical response capacity."

Jeon added, "Despite expanded compensation and partial easing of distancing measures, the prolonged difficulties faced by self-employed and small business owners have been taken into account. As the quarantine system is restructured focusing on managing high-risk groups, various measures such as suspension of vaccination proof and negative test confirmation (quarantine pass), and exemption from mandatory self-quarantine for cohabitants are being implemented, so many opinions suggested that social distancing should be linked with these."

Experts are concerned that the government's premature easing of quarantine measures will increase the burden on medical sites and overload the healthcare system.

Professor Jeong Jae-hoon of Gachon University College of Medicine's Department of Preventive Medicine warned, "Although the number of severe beds currently prepared by the quarantine authorities may seem sufficient, it may not be so when the number of critically ill patients reaches its peak." In a Facebook post, he strongly criticized the government, saying, "The peak of the outbreak is about two weeks away, but the policy decisions are really disappointing. I don't even understand why opinions that won't be heard are needed."

Professor Eom said, "Now, strengthening social distancing or conventional methods cannot control the outbreak. A strategy to minimize deaths is necessary. Just as the bed occupancy rate exceeded 70% during the Delta variant spread causing great confusion, a time will soon come when bed management becomes difficult," expressing concern.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.