[Generational Voting Analysis 40s·50s] Lee's Support Absolutely Strong... 50s Women Show Considerable Support for Yoon

4050 Age Group Holds Largest Population Share
Lee Jae-myung Support Exceeds 50%, Showing Lead
"50s Women Sensitive to Real Estate Public Sentiment Tend to Become Conservative"

[Asia Economy Reporter Naju-seok] The 40s and 50s generation constitutes the largest population group in this presidential election. Although they are classified as a generation strongly supporting Lee Jae-myung, the Democratic Party presidential candidate, it was also analyzed that Yoon Seok-youl, the People Power Party presidential candidate, has considerable support among women in their 50s.

According to a public opinion poll conducted by Realmeter on behalf of OhmyNews from the 24th to the 27th of last month, the support rate for candidate Lee among people in their 40s was 54.5%, while candidate Yoon's support rate was 28.1%. For those in their 50s, candidate Lee had 51.8% support, and candidate Yoon had 37.9%. An analysis of public opinion trends with expert assistance confirmed a conservative shift among female voters in their 50s. While male and female voters in their 40s and male voters in their 50s showed clear support for candidate Lee, female voters in their 50s showed significant support for candidate Yoon. Candidate Lee led candidate Yoon by 34.0 percentage points, 20.0 percentage points, and 17.9 percentage points among 40s males, 40s females, and 50s males, respectively. In contrast, among 50s females, candidate Lee recorded 49.3% support, leading candidate Yoon (40.7%) by 8.6%.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Kim Bong-shin, CEO of Metavoice, commented on this, saying, "Women in their 50s tend to become more conservative, which can translate into support for candidate Yoon." This is interpreted as being due to their sensitivity to real estate sentiment as the parental generation. He further analyzed, "The trend shows a balanced game where neither candidate has a unilateral lead in support."

However, when encompassing the entire 40s and 50s generations, the characteristic of strong support for candidate Lee remains. In particular, voters in their 40s make up 18.5% (8.15 million) of all voters, and those in their 50s account for 19.5% (8.62 million). Together, the 40s and 50s constitute 38.0% of the total population. In the 19th presidential election, this generation accounted for 40.5% of all voters, and 41.0% in the 18th presidential election. Although their proportion among all voters has slightly decreased compared to the past, in terms of population, they remain the generation with the largest number of votes in South Korea. Notably, this generation played a leading role in the candlelight protests, fueled by anger over the past state affairs scandal. They have also been a solid support base for democratic parties in the 18th and 19th presidential elections. Therefore, how actively this generation votes is also crucial. According to a survey conducted by Gallup Korea on behalf of the National Election Commission from the 7th to 8th of last month, 81.7% of people in their 40s and 87.2% of those in their 50s responded that they will definitely vote. Compared to the same type of survey during the last presidential election, the rate remained the same for the 40s and increased by 4.5 percentage points for the 50s, showing a strong willingness to vote.

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Lee Jun-seok, leader of the People Power Party, said in an earlier interview with this publication, "Currently, many in their 50s experienced their 20s during the 1987 democratization period, so I think the support for candidate Lee and candidate Yoon among the 50s will eventually be about half and half." Ha Tae-kyung, a People Power Party lawmaker, also predicted, "Regarding the 50s public opinion trend, although the 50s showed weakness in the recent colorism controversy, there is still a chance in the remaining period."

For detailed public opinion poll results, please refer to the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission website.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.