[Generational Vote Analysis 2030] The Path to Cheong, What Is the Choice of Cheongchun?

13.26 Million 2030 Generation, 30% of All Voters... Young Generation = Progressive, Likely to Break This Time

[Asia Economy Reporters Baek Kyunghwan and Lee Myunghwan] In this presidential election, where the two-party dominance remains unbroken, the voting intentions of different generations could have a decisive impact on the outcome. The traditional notion that people in their 20s and 30s lean progressive is also changing. The swing voter base, which is not strongly tied to ideology, region, or generation, has grown.

On the 2nd, Asia Economy analyzed recently released opinion polls and found that the average percentage of 20s (including those aged 18 and above) and 30s who expressed an intention not to vote or answered that they have 'no preferred candidate' surpassed all indicators for those aged 40 and above. This suggests that the swing voter ratio is concentrated in the 2030 generation, making last-minute shifts in voting intentions inevitable.

According to a poll conducted on the 26th by CBS and Southern Post, the percentage of 20s and 30s who answered 'no preferred candidate' (including non-responses and swing voters) reached 13.8% and 13.2%, respectively. Compared to those aged 40 and above, who showed rates in the 3-4% range, this is about three to four times higher. The percentage of those who answered 'no intention to vote' (including 'don't know' and non-responses) was between 0.5% and 2.5% for those aged 40 and above, while it was 3.5% for those in their 20s.

Looking at presidential candidate support rates, differences were also observed between the 20s and 30s. Those in their 20s showed stronger support for Yoon Seok-yeol, the People Power Party candidate, than for Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party. For those in their 30s, although there were differences depending on the polling agency, the race was generally close. However, considering the high rates of non-voting intention and swing voters among the 20s, the support direction revealed in polls does not fully represent the entire group.

The formula that 'if young people vote, progressives win' may be broken again this time. The 20s and 30s, who had a strong progressive inclination and were considered the Democratic Party's 'stronghold,' have shown clear signs of defection since last year's Seoul and Busan mayoral by-elections. In particular, significant differences by gender began to appear among those in their 20s. In a Realmeter poll last month, 40.5% of women in their 20s supported the Democratic Party, while 54.5% of men in their 20s supported the People Power Party.

Candidate camps have become entangled in complex 'gain and loss calculations' regarding voter turnout. Given the large fluctuations in the 2030 generation's voting intentions and the high proportion considering changing their preferred candidate, they are unable to determine which side their participation would favor.

Internally, it is known that both camps are closely examining the voter registry data released last week by the National Election Commission. Voters in their 20s and 30s number 13.26 million, accounting for 30% of the total 44.19 million voters, making the election outcome inevitably dependent on their voting tendencies.

A Democratic Party official stated, "Strategies to mobilize voters who are uninterested in the election or undecided on a candidate will inevitably be reflected in the remaining election period." A People Power Party official said, "We will focus on retaining the high support among men in their 20s until the end, while also delivering tailored messages to young women."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.