Why Russia with Overwhelming Military Power is Struggling

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu, Military Specialist Reporter] On the fifth day of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, February 28 (local time), Russian forces continued their attacks in the northeastern, eastern, southeastern, and southern directions of Ukraine. Despite peace negotiations taking place for the first time since the outbreak of the war between Russian and Ukrainian government delegations in Belarus, the fighting did not cease. President Vladimir Putin escalated tensions further by putting the nuclear forces on heightened readiness.

Military experts assess that if military clashes between Ukraine and Russia continue, Ukraine will inevitably suffer a complete defeat despite Western support, due to Russia's overwhelming superiority in military strength.

According to the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) 'Military Balance' report, Ukraine spent $4.7 billion on military expenditures in 2021. In contrast, nuclear-armed Russia spent $45.8 billion, which is ten times Ukraine's defense budget.

Russia also holds about three times the manpower advantage. Russia has 900,000 active-duty personnel and 2 million reservists. Ukraine has 196,000 active personnel and 900,000 reservists.

On the ground forces, Russia has 280,000 troops, more than twice Ukraine's 125,600. The air force is also more than five times stronger than Ukraine's 35,000 personnel. Currently, Russia is reported to have deployed over 50% of its forces on Ukrainian territory and borders.

Russia possesses more than 15,857 armored combat vehicles, while Ukraine has 3,309. Russia has 1,391 combat aircraft compared to Ukraine's 128. Helicopters number 821 for Russia and 55 for Ukraine. Notably, Russia owns 49 submarines, whereas Ukraine has none.

Recently, Russian forces deployed in the Donbas region Soviet-era equipment such as the IMR-2 engineering vehicle built on the T-72 tank chassis, the D-30 120mm howitzer with a maximum range of 15.4 km capable of firing 7-8 rounds per minute, and the Kamaz 4310 all-terrain truck used for troop transport.

Near the border, BM-30 Smerch multiple launch rocket systems were also deployed. Mounted on vehicles capable of speeds up to 64 km/h, these 300mm rockets have a range of 850 km. Additionally, BMP infantry fighting vehicles capable of launching anti-tank guided missiles and Msta-S self-propelled howitzers were deployed.

The Russian mobile ballistic missile system '9K720 Iskander,' known as 'SS-26 Stone' by NATO, was also spotted. This system can launch two missiles weighing 4 tons each with a range of 480 km.

Russia has also reinforced its naval power by moving large landing ships from the Mediterranean to the Black Sea, adjacent to Ukraine's Azov and Black Sea coasts.

On the other hand, although the Ukrainian military has combat experience from fighting pro-Russian rebels in eastern Donbas for eight years after its complete defeat in the 2014 Crimean Peninsula war, it is inevitably inferior in firepower.

Ukraine's heavy weapons are basically analyzed to be similar models to Russia's. Ukraine possesses the same D-30 howitzers and Smerch multiple launch rocket systems and operates tanks such as the T-64, T-72, and T-80. Infantry are equipped with modern weapons and protective gear, including the British and American N-LOW and Javelin anti-tank missiles. However, Ukraine lags significantly behind Russia in both quantity and range of missiles and artillery.

Since 2018, the Ukrainian military has used the American Javelin anti-tank missile. The Javelin is a 1.2m long, 22.3 kg missile including the launcher, which uses a 'fire and forget' method where the missile autonomously strikes the target after launch.

Moreover, Germany announced on the 26th of last month that it would provide Ukraine with about 1,000 anti-tank missiles and 500 Stinger surface-to-air missiles. This marks a significant change for Germany, which had only supplied 5,000 military helmets by mid-last month amid growing concerns over the invasion, drawing criticism from the US and others.

Although Ukraine is at a disadvantage compared to Russia, it is evaluated to be successfully counterattacking. Analysts attribute Ukraine's pure 'combat will' as its greatest strength.

According to foreign media, a US Department of Defense official stated, "Russia has not made decisive progress in the past 24 hours and is struggling especially in the northern region," adding, "Although Russian forces launched a full-scale offensive, they are faltering due to Ukraine's desperate resistance."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.