Social distancing easing? Experts say "Not the peak of the pandemic, penny wise pound foolish"

Up to 360,000 Daily Confirmed Cases Expected
Concerns Over Surge in Severe Patients
Potential Collapse of Medical System

[Asia Economy Reporter Ki Ha-young] As the number of new COVID-19 cases approaches 100,000, controversy is growing as the government hints at easing social distancing measures. Among experts, there is strong criticism that it is premature to ease social distancing since the Omicron variant's spread has not yet peaked. Although the Omicron variant is less severe, the unprecedented surge in cases could lead to a rapid increase in critically ill patients, raising concerns that the healthcare system could collapse.

The Pandemic Has Not Yet Peaked

According to the quarantine authorities on the 16th, the government is gathering opinions from various sectors to announce adjustments to social distancing measures, which will take effect next week, on the 18th. They are considering not only the overall epidemic situation and healthcare capacity but also the scale of social and economic damage. Currently, it is expected that social distancing will be partially eased while maintaining the vaccine pass system.

Experts criticized that it is not yet time to ease social distancing since the number of confirmed cases has not peaked. Not only has the daily case count predicted by the government for the end of this month?130,000 to 170,000 cases?not been reached, but the National Institute for Mathematical Sciences expects cases to rise to as many as 360,000 in early next month. Professor Lee Jae-gap of the Department of Infectious Diseases at Hallym University Kangnam Sacred Heart Hospital wrote on his Facebook on the 14th, "We are not even managing the increasing cases properly; isolation and notification releases are not being done correctly, and we cannot properly inform how to handle patients in general care whose conditions have worsened. Are we sending a signal that social distancing might be eased under these circumstances?" He raised his voice, saying, "Critically ill patients are beginning to increase in earnest; please do not worsen the crisis yourselves."

On the 16th, when 90,443 new COVID-19 cases were reported, the number of confirmed cases was displayed on the monitor in the COVID-19 situation room set up at Songpa District Office in Seoul. Photo by Jinhyung Kang aymsdream@

A Surge in Critically Ill Patients Is Inevitable

The most concerning issue is the increase in critically ill patients. Typically, critically ill patients increase with a 2 to 3-week lag after new confirmed cases. So far, the situation remains relatively stable and managed.

As of midnight on this day, the number of critically ill patients was 313, similar to the previous day (314), maintaining the 300s for three consecutive days. The number of critically ill patients, which had been in the 200s since the end of last month, rose back to the 300s on the 14th (306). The nationwide COVID-19 severe bed occupancy rate was 27.0% (716 out of 2,655 beds in use), up 0.2 percentage points from the previous day (26.8%).

If, as predicted by the quarantine authorities, 170,000 cases occur in a single day at the end of this month, considering the Omicron infection severity rate of 0.42%, there could be 714 critically ill patients daily 1 to 2 weeks later. At the peak, intensive care beds may be insufficient.

The Corona Victims' Self-Employed Federation (Coja Federation), consisting of 14 self-employed organizations including the Korea Federation of Restaurants, is holding a head-shaving ceremony at the "Government Condemnation Gwanghwamun Rally" held on the 15th at the Gwanghwamun Citizen Open Square in Seoul. They demanded the abolition of business hour restrictions, retroactive application of loss compensation and realization of 100% compensation, inclusion of self-employed business owners with sales exceeding 1 billion KRW in the loss compensation target, preparation of separate support measures by Seoul and local governments, and additional application of loss compensation for all businesses opened after the outbreak of COVID-19. Photo by Moon Honam munonam@

Healthcare System Collapse Could Recur

Ultimately, there are many concerns that the rapid increase in confirmed cases and critically ill patients will cause the healthcare system to collapse. This would not only be a problem of the scale of critically ill patients but could also disrupt emergency medical responses for the general public. Already, in medical settings, there are criticisms that due to the surge in confirmed cases, hospitals have no management plans even when confirmed patients appear, so they are left as is. At the end of last year, when the Delta variant spread, there were cases of deaths in ambulances or at home due to bed shortages, and even general patients experienced difficulties in emergency medical responses.

Professor Kim Woo-joo of the Department of Infectious Diseases at Korea University Guro Hospital said, "If hidden infections are included, the number of confirmed cases would be more than double the official count," and expressed concern that "with medical staff infections and healthcare system overload already occurring, it may become difficult for patients other than COVID-19 patients to receive treatment." Easing social distancing under the current circumstances is a case of 'penny wise, pound foolish,' and if cases increase again, social distancing will inevitably have to be strengthened once more.

While preparations for easing quarantine measures are necessary, there are opinions that a smooth transition is needed. Professor Chun Eun-mi of the Department of Respiratory Medicine at Ewha Mokdong Hospital said, "Looking at overseas cases, easing social distancing was implemented after the peak," and added, "If social distancing is to be eased, it should be done gradually while monitoring the spread."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.