Severe Cases and Deaths Rise Again with Omicron... "Prepare for Hospital Bed Shortages"

100,000 Confirmed Cases Could Mean 1,000 Severe Cases
Experts Predict Peak of Outbreak in March

On the 13th, with 56,431 new COVID-19 cases reported, marking the fourth consecutive day of over 50,000 cases, citizens waiting to get tested are lined up at a temporary screening clinic set up in World Cup Park, Mapo-gu, Seoul. Photo by Jinhyung Kang aymsdream@

As the Omicron variant spreads, daily new confirmed cases have remained in the 50,000 range for six consecutive days, raising repeated warnings that the number of critically ill patients and deaths will soon increase sharply. Although health authorities maintain that the utilization rate of intensive care unit beds remains stable for now, experts have pointed out that if the number of confirmed cases rises to 200,000 to 300,000 next month, a 'bed shortage crisis' could recur.

Increase in Critical Cases and Deaths Begins in Earnest

According to the Central Disease Control Headquarters on the 15th, the age-standardized fatality rate of the Omicron variant in Korea was 0.19% as of the 12th, about one-third of the Delta variant's 0.7%. The critical illness rate for Omicron was 0.42%, also about one-third of Delta's 1.4%. However, the daily number of new confirmed cases doubled within a week. The weekly average of domestic confirmed cases from February 8 to 14 was 51,352.1, which is 1.81 times the 28,294.6 cases recorded the previous week (February 1?7).

The number of confirmed cases among the elderly, who are at higher risk of severe illness and death, is also rising. Daily confirmed cases for those aged 60 and over increased from 1,460 on the 1st to 2,517 on the 4th, 4,234 on the 5th, and surpassed 6,000 for the first time on the 10th (6,008 cases). The proportion of confirmed cases aged 60 and above rose from 9.2% in the first week of February (January 30?February 5) to 11.7% in the second week (February 6?12).

As the overall scale of the outbreak and the number of high-risk confirmed cases increase, the number of critically ill patients and deaths among hospitalized patients, which had been relatively stable, is gradually rising. The average number of critically ill patients in the second week of February was 232, nearly 100 more than the 133 recorded the previous week. Weekly deaths also increased from 146 to 187 during the same period.

Health authorities analyzed that the risk of an increase in critically ill patients and deaths has grown, as confirmed cases among those aged 60 and above more than doubled in a week. Son Young-rae, head of the Social Strategy Division at the Central Accident Response Headquarters, said, "The number of elderly confirmed cases is increasing, so critically ill patients and deaths may rise further," adding, "Considering that new confirmed cases typically increase with a lag of about 2 to 3 weeks, the increase is expected to begin this week."

"Prepare for Shortage of Critical Care Beds"

The utilization rate of intensive care unit beds remains stable for now. As of 5 p.m. the previous day, out of 2,619 COVID-19 critical care beds nationwide, 702 were in use, resulting in a utilization rate of 26.8%. This means there is capacity to handle an additional 1,900 patients, although the rate rose by 1.1 percentage points from 25.7% the day before. The utilization rate of semi-critical care beds was 44.4% (1,356 out of 3,052 beds in use), and the utilization rate of semi-critical and infectious disease hospital beds was 41.7% (8,227 out of 19,746 beds in use), indicating there is still room available.

The government expects daily confirmed cases to reach between 130,000 and 170,000 by the end of this month, while the National Institute for Mathematical Sciences projects a maximum of 360,000 cases. Professor Jeong Jae-hoon of the Department of Preventive Medicine at Gachon University Gil Medical Center explained, "A peak of over 200,000 daily confirmed cases could occur domestically, especially during March," adding, "Since the number of people who have acquired immunity through infection is low in Korea, the scale and duration of the outbreak are expected to be larger and longer." Professor Eom Jung-sik of the Department of Infectious Diseases at Gachon University Gil Medical Center predicted, "If daily new confirmed cases exceed 100,000, the number of critically ill patients could increase sharply," and estimated, "If about 1% of all confirmed cases become critically ill, there could be up to 1,000 critically ill patients per day by the end of this month."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.