"High COVID-19 Transmission Rate May Ultimately Lower Severe Case Ratio" ... Domestic Research Findings

KAIST·IBS Joint Research Team
Announces Results of COVID-19 Mathematical Model Analysis

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[Asia Economy Reporter Na Ye-eun] A study has found that a high COVID-19 transmission rate can ultimately reduce the proportion of patients who develop severe illness.

On the 14th, a joint research team composed of mathematicians and medical scientists from the Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology (KAIST) and the Institute for Basic Science (IBS) announced these findings. The study was published on February 11 on the medical preprint website 'medRxiv'.

The research team developed a new mathematical model to address the question, "How does the change in virus transmission rate affect the endemicity of COVID-19?" Based on the fact that breakthrough infections can occur even after vaccination and that immune responses are boosted again after recovery from breakthrough infections, they analyzed the human immune response to COVID-19 by dividing it into short-term neutralizing antibody immune response and long-term T-cell immune response.

The analysis showed that even with a high vaccination rate, if the virus transmission rate increases, the number of COVID-19 patients temporarily rises. However, ultimately, the proportion of severe COVID-19 cases decreases, leading to a reduction in the number of severe patients, and the process of becoming endemic as a mild respiratory disease may actually accelerate.

Domestic Research Team Analyzes Correlation Between Omicron Spread and Endemicity - The research team compared the endemicity process after the COVID-19 pandemic using mathematical models based on virus transmission rates. It was predicted that, compared to cases with low transmission rates, higher transmission rates actually lead to a decrease in the severity rate of COVID-19 and shorten the time required for the virus to become endemic.
/Photo by KAIST

The research team stated that if the virus transmission rate increases, the total number of patients will rise, causing a surge in severe cases, so vaccination coverage must exceed 80% of the population and a proper critical care medical system must be established. They pointed out that if these two conditions are not met and quarantine policies are relaxed, the collapse of the healthcare system will occur before COVID-19 becomes endemic.

However, they explained that caution is needed when applying these findings to high-risk groups.

Professor Kim Jae-kyung of the Department of Mathematical Sciences at KAIST said, "If the number of patients temporarily increases too much in a situation where the virus transmission rate is high, the healthcare system could collapse," adding, "It is necessary to interpret and apply the research results carefully, considering these factors."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.