[Global Issue+] 'Donbas' Emerging as the Frontline of the Ukraine Conflict

Many Russian Residents Live There... Hope for Return to Russian Federation
Accidental Localized Conflict Continues... Concerns Over Full-Scale War Between Russia and Ukraine

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Hyunwoo Lee] As the possibility of Russia invading Ukraine intensifies, global attention is focusing on the border region between the two countries known as 'Donbas.' This is because the rebels in this area are confronting the Ukrainian military, and behind the scenes, Russian support continues, further escalating military tensions.

According to the White House on the 12th (local time), U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin held a phone call lasting over an hour that day, but it is reported that they failed to achieve a diplomatic breakthrough on the Ukraine issue. During the call, President Biden reiterated a warning that if Russia invades Ukraine, the United States, together with its allies and partner countries, will respond firmly and ensure that Russia pays a swift and severe price.

However, Russia shows little sign of withdrawing the large-scale troops deployed near the border. Instead, it is strongly asserting its claim over the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine. The Donbas region originally refers to the areas of Luhansk and Donetsk provinces in eastern Ukraine, known to have the highest population of ethnic Russians. Additionally, this area is located at a geopolitical key point connecting the Crimean Peninsula?which Russia forcibly annexed in 2014?to Russia by land, and it is a rich source of underground resources such as coal, making it a territory Russia has long coveted.

The Fate of Donbas Changed by 'Euromaidan' and the 'Crimean Peninsula'

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

According to foreign media including CNN, on the 7th (local time), Denis Pushilin, the head of the Donetsk People's Republic, a rebel group controlling the central city of Donetsk and surrounding areas in the Donbas region, warned at a press conference that "a full-scale war with Ukraine could break out at any time," and stated, "If Ukraine, supported by the West, crosses the line, we do not rule out receiving military aid from Russia." This effectively declared that Russia is behind them.

The Donbas region, which includes most of eastern Ukraine, is currently occupied by two rebel groups: the Donetsk People's Republic and the Luhansk People's Republic, both holding key areas and confronting the Ukrainian government forces. These groups are known to be receiving powerful firepower support from the Russian military.

In fact, the Donbas area has been a source of conflict since Ukraine gained independence following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. These regions have over 30% ethnic Russian residents who originally opposed separation from Russia and harbored strong resentment toward the Ukrainian government's pro-Western policies.

Especially after the 2013 Euromaidan revolution?a citizen uprising that led to the establishment of a pro-Western government in Ukraine?the separatist movements in these areas turned into armed struggles. Shortly thereafter, in 2014, Russia's invasion of the Crimean Peninsula overlapped, and the Russian military supplied tanks, armored vehicles, and personal firearms to these regions, enabling the rebels to easily capture key cities in Donbas.

Concerns Over Accidental Localized Conflict Escalating into Full-Scale War

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

Currently, the Donbas rebels are reported to have nearly 100,000 troops. According to the United States and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), Russia has deployed over 120,000 troops near the Ukrainian border, so combined, the forces on both sides are estimated to exceed 200,000 troops. This is comparable to Ukraine's entire standing army of 250,000.

Localized battles between the Donbas rebels and the Ukrainian regular army continue, raising concerns that an accidental full-scale war could break out. The Russian government maintains that there will be no full-scale war with Ukraine and denies that Russian forces are strengthening the eastern rebel forces, but the rebels are already using major Russian heavy weapons.

Due to the increasing likelihood of a full-scale war, countries including the United States have issued evacuation orders for embassy staff and remaining nationals. There are also concerns that if a full-scale war breaks out, not only Ukraine but the entire Eastern Europe could fall into a severe security crisis.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.