"Will Social Distancing Be Lifted?" Expectations for Eased Quarantine vs. Concerns Over Possible Increase in Severe Cases

Prime Minister Kim Bu-gyeom: "If quarantine stability is confirmed, it may be possible next week"
Reviewing adjustments to quarantine pass and QR electronic entry log
"Peak of the outbreak may last until March"... Focus on managing the elderly and fatalities

An announcement regarding the easing of social distancing measures, increasing the private gathering limit from 4 to 6 people, is posted at a restaurant in Yangcheon-gu, Seoul, on the 16th, one day before the implementation. Photo by Kang Jin-hyung aymsdream@

[Asia Economy Reporter Jo In-kyung] As the government has repeatedly issued messages that current social distancing measures, scheduled to end on the 20th, could be lifted, expectations are rising that COVID-19 quarantine measures may be eased as early as next week. At the same time, there are opinions that caution is necessary since severe cases could increase again even as the relatively low-fatality Omicron variant spreads.

Government: "One week left, but will make a comprehensive judgment on the situation"

Prime Minister Kim Boo-kyum said at the Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasures Headquarters meeting held at the Government Seoul Office on the morning of the 11th, "It is also a very important task to minimize economic and social damage by carefully analyzing and evaluating the quarantine situation and adjusting social distancing," adding, "If we determine that severe cases and deaths are stably maintained and the quarantine situation can be managed to some extent, we will make a courageous decision at any time."

This implies that if medical response capacity for severe cases and deaths is ensured even before the current distancing measures end on the 20th, the government intends to ease the long-standing social distancing measures. There is also a high possibility that related systems linked to distancing, such as the vaccine pass (proof of vaccination or negative test) and QR codes, will be relaxed.

Regarding this, Lee Ki-il, the first controller of the Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasures Headquarters, explained, "(The distancing system that started on the 7th) has about one week left, but nonetheless, it expresses the will to ease measures if possible." He added, "We will comprehensively review the new systems established since last month for Omicron response, diagnostic testing, and home treatment, as well as severe cases and death rates, to make a judgment."

The quarantine authorities explain that an increase in severe cases usually appears with a 2-3 week lag after a rise in confirmed cases. Considering that Omicron became the dominant strain in the third week of last month, about three weeks ago, the time for an increase in severe cases is approaching. Severe cases hit a low of 257 on the 4th, then gradually increased to 285 on the 9th, and recorded 271 on the day of reporting.

Lee said, "We initially expected the peak at the end of February, but now it is trending into March, and with the revised forecast, the maximum number of confirmed cases is rising from 100,000 to 130,000, even up to 170,000," adding, "Since easing distancing and measures like the vaccine pass and QR codes are interconnected, we will carefully review and decide."

On the 9th, with 49,567 new COVID-19 cases reported, an increase of about 13,000 in one day, citizens visiting the temporary screening clinic set up at Seoul City Hall Plaza are waiting to get tested. Photo by Jinhyung Kang aymsdream@

Despite Rapid Surge in Cases, Low Severity Rate... "Closely Monitoring Elderly Confirmed Cases"

Earlier, the government had sent several signals that it might ease quarantine measures. On the 4th, it announced that it would consider transitioning COVID-19 management to a routine quarantine and medical system similar to seasonal influenza, based on medical system capacity, severity rate, and fatality rate.

It also hinted at reforming quarantine measures such as the vaccine pass and QR code registration by shifting diagnostic testing, epidemiological investigations, isolation, and home treatment systems to a more relaxed approach than before.

As the highly transmissible but low-severity Omicron variant became dominant and mild confirmed cases surged, the government judged that focusing on managing severe cases and deaths would be more efficient than maintaining existing quarantine policies.

At the same time, voices cautioning against premature easing of quarantine remain. On the 7th, Jung Eun-kyung, Director of the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (KDCA), stated, "(COVID-19) has much higher transmissibility and more than twice the fatality rate compared to seasonal influenza, so it is premature to manage it like seasonal flu." She mentioned the possibility of severe cases increasing beyond the current 200 range, warning, "According to KDCA estimates, about 1,500 to 2,500 cases could occur. We must also closely monitor the increasing number of confirmed cases among the elderly."

Ko Jae-young, spokesperson for the KDCA, also expressed a cautious stance on adjusting distancing measures during a media briefing on the 11th, saying, "Even with the low severity of Omicron, if confirmed cases surge, the risk of increased severe cases and deaths remains." He explained, "Distancing measures will be decided through discussions at the Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasures Headquarters and the Daily Recovery Support Committee, based on weekly risk assessments analyzed by the Central Disease Control Headquarters."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.