North Korea Preparing to Launch SLBM After Olympics?

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu, Military Specialist Reporter] As a 'peculiar movement' has been detected at the Sinpo Shipyard in South Hamgyong Province, North Korea, there is speculation that North Korea may be coordinating the timing of a military provocation.

On the 10th, an intelligence official said, "It is true that there are subtle movements at the Sinpo Shipyard, which houses the North Korean Navy submarine base and manufacturing facilities, but a detailed analysis is needed to determine whether these movements are related to the launch of a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM)."

On the 8th (local time), the North Korea-focused website 'Beyond Parallel,' operated by the U.S. Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), reported that an analysis of commercial satellite images taken over the past four weeks around the Sinpo Shipyard revealed previously unseen movements near the mooring area within the shipyard where the SLBM test-use Whale-class (Sinpo-class) submarine '8.24 Hero Ship' is docked. The '8.24 Hero Ship' is believed to have been partially damaged during a new SLBM test launch by North Korea in October last year and underwent repairs from November to December.

Intelligence authorities note that while North Korea is showing additional movements such as preparing for a military parade, since this coincides with the Beijing Olympics period in China, it is expected to focus on internal official events rather than military provocations for the time being. Rather than holding a parade that could dampen the mood of the traditional ally China's celebrations, North Korea is thought to aim to create a festive atmosphere through refined commemorative events or mass rallies.

Some speculate that considering the pace of preparations for the parade, it is more likely to be held on April 15, the 110th anniversary of Kim Il-sung's birth celebrated as 'Taeyangjeol,' rather than on the 16th, the 80th anniversary of Kim Jong-il's birth (Kwangmyongsong Day).

Since coming to power, Chairman Kim Jong-un has not held a parade on Kwangmyongsong Day over the past decade. In contrast, large-scale parades were held twice in April, when Kim Il-sung's birthday falls: in 2012 and 2017. The year 2012 marked the 100th anniversary and 2017 the 105th anniversary, both considered significant 'regular anniversaries' (milestone years counted in 5 or 10-year increments) by North Korea.

Furthermore, there is a forecast that the parade might be held to maximize 'dramatic effect' by aligning it with the postponed South Korea-U.S. joint military exercises, which are being considered for April after the presidential election on March 9. It is expected that North Korea will maintain a 'grand celebratory' atmosphere until April 25, the founding day of the Korean People's Revolutionary Army.

During this period, as soon as the Olympics conclude, North Korea may issue a new decision regarding the possible withdrawal of the 'moratorium' it warned the U.S. about, raising the possibility of resuming military actions. It is anticipated that North Korea might intensify some nuclear-related 'activities,' resume intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) test launches, or demonstrate enhanced ICBM capabilities through satellite launches.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.