D-30 Nail-biting Close... There Has Never Been a Presidential Election Like This

30 Days Before the Presidential Election, Polls in Turmoil... Still a Close Race Within the Margin of Error

[Asia Economy Reporter Oh Ju-yeon] In the polls released 30 days before the next presidential election, the approval ratings of Lee Jae-myung, the Democratic Party presidential candidate, and Yoon Seok-youl, the People Power Party presidential candidate, showed an ultra-close race within the margin of error. Analysts say it is difficult to clearly gauge the election landscape even a month before the presidential election.

According to the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission on the 7th, among the four polls first announced that day, three showed the gap between candidates Lee Jae-myung and Yoon Seok-youl within the margin of error. Even the Realmeter poll, which was outside the margin of error, showed a very narrow difference, making it difficult to argue for the superiority of a specific candidate.

On that day, Realmeter conducted a poll commissioned by OhmyNews for the first week of February (February 2-4, nationwide, 1,509 people aged 18 and over, with a sampling error of 95% ±2.5 percentage points) on the next presidential candidate approval ratings. Candidate Yoon rose by 3.2 percentage points from the fourth week of January to 43.4%. Candidate Lee fell by 0.4 percentage points to 38.1%. The gap between the two candidates was 5.3 percentage points, slightly exceeding the margin of error. Following were candidate Ahn at 7.5% and Shim Sang-jung, the Justice Party presidential candidate, at 2.5%.

By age group, candidate Yoon received high support from those in their 20s (43.7%), 30s (44.2%), 60s (49.1%), and 70 and older (62.7%), while candidate Lee had higher approval ratings in their 40s (54.0%) and 50s (47.0%). By region, candidate Yoon received strong support in Seoul (39.6%), Incheon/Gyeonggi (42.4%), Busan/Ulsan/Gyeongnam (51.0%), and Daegu/Gyeongbuk (66.7%), while candidate Lee was favored in Gwangju/Jeolla (60.0%) and Jeju (68.3%).

In the other three polls, the gap between candidates Lee Jae-myung and Yoon Seok-youl remained within the margin of error, continuing the "ultra-close" race pattern.

In the Korea Society Opinion Institute (KSOI) poll (February 4-5, nationwide, 1,011 people aged 18 and over), the gap between the two candidates was 6.2 percentage points (95% confidence level ±3.1%), standing at the boundary of the margin of error. In the Embrain Public poll (February 5-6, nationwide, 1,001 people aged 18 and over), the gap was 0.9 percentage points (95% confidence level ±3.1%), and in the Research & Research poll (February 4-5, nationwide, 1,043 people aged 18 and over), the gap was 4.7 percentage points (95% confidence level ±3.0%), all within the margin of error. Um Kyung-young, director of the Era Spirit Research Institute, analyzed, "Currently, a significant portion of candidate Ahn's approval ratings overlap with candidate Yoon's, showing an ultra-close race with candidate Lee," while also noting some results outside the margin of error. He added, "There will be polls that stand at the boundary of the (future margin of error)."

For more details regarding the polls, please refer to the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.