US Think Tank Eurasia Group: "Biggest Risk in 2022 is Failure of China's Zero-COVID Policy"

"China's Lockdown to Continue... Global Supply Chain Disruptions Worsen"
"Concerns Over Prolonged COVID-19 Pandemic Amid Global Leadership Vacuum"

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Hyunwoo Lee] The U.S. think tank Eurasia Group has identified the failure of China's COVID-19 prevention policy as the biggest geopolitical risk for the new year 2022. It warned that if China continues to impose lockdown measures on COVID-19 hotspots this year, it could exacerbate global supply chain disruptions and inflationary pressures.

On the 3rd (local time), Eurasia Group released its "Top 10 Global Geopolitical Risks for 2022" report, stating that the greatest geopolitical risk this year is the failure of China's COVID-19 prevention policy, known as the "Zero COVID-19" policy. Eurasia Group said, "While advanced countries are entering the end phase of the COVID-19 pandemic, China must continue to fight the Omicron variant this year with vaccines of limited effectiveness," adding, "Following the lockdown of Xi'an, a major city with a population of 13 million currently underway, repeated lockdowns are inevitable going forward."

It continued, "China will face its greatest difficulties due to the failure of the Zero COVID-19 policy, which initially appeared very successful, but it is almost impossible for President Xi Jinping, who is preparing for a third term, to change the prevention policy line," and pointed out, "Most of China's population lacks antibodies against the Omicron variant, and the Chinese health authorities, which have relied mainly on lockdowns and prevention measures over the past two years since the pandemic, will find it even harder to adopt an open policy."

Eurasia Group warned, "If China's lockdown measures continue, global supply chain disruptions will worsen," adding, "Shortages of raw materials and equipment, as well as supply shortages in all sectors including logistics and pharmaceuticals, could intensify." It also forecasted, "Prolonged supply chain issues could cause severe inflation, and demand suppression and labor shortages due to COVID-19 lockdowns will also pressure price increases," and said, "The Chinese central government will intervene more to curb inflation, but this will further distort the market and worsen the situation."

The analysis suggests that with the Chinese government focusing on domestic prevention issues and the U.S. also concentrating on its own domestic challenges, it is unlikely that global leadership to resolve the pandemic situation will emerge. Eurasia Group stated, "The global leadership necessary to end worldwide challenges like COVID-19 is unlikely to appear throughout this year," and expressed concern that "in the absence of global leadership, humanitarian tragedies will continue to occur, especially in neglected regions worldwide such as Myanmar, Afghanistan, and Venezuela."

Meanwhile, besides the failure of China's COVID-19 prevention policy, Eurasia Group identified the following as major geopolitical risks: ▲regulatory failures of digital giants ▲the U.S. midterm elections ▲China's focus on domestic consumption ▲Russia's threat to Ukraine ▲Iran's nuclear issue ▲challenges in green energy policies ▲policy absence in poor countries ▲U.S.-China conflicts ▲and Turkey's authoritarian regime.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.