Election D-68, Lee Jae-myung Trapped in a Box Range... The Move to Break Through

Seoul, Youth, and Women in Relative Weakness
Courting with Successive Announcements of Tailored Pledges
Pragmatic Reform Emphasized to Target Moderates

With 68 days remaining until the presidential election, a neck-and-neck, razor-thin race continues between candidates Lee Jae-myung and Yoon Seok-youl. After advancing to the final round, the convention effects for both sides have diminished. Lee Jae-myung, the Democratic Party candidate, is attempting to consolidate regional support through the Maetaverse (weekly rides on the livelihood bus) and target the moderate voters with real estate tax cut pledges, but his approval ratings remain trapped within a "box range." On the other hand, Yoon Seok-youl, the People Power Party candidate, is experiencing a decline in support due to a series of setbacks including Kim Geon-hee's false career claims, internal conflicts within the election committee, and his own controversies. Both candidates are in need of breakthrough and turnaround cards. As approval ratings are expected to stabilize around the Lunar New Year holiday at the end of January next year, we examine the candidates' realistic perceptions and strategies as they enter the "real battle."

Lee Jae-myung, the Democratic Party presidential candidate, and Yoon Seok-youl, the People Power Party presidential candidate, are attending the Local Autonomy Awards and Korea Regional Development Awards ceremony hosted by the Korea Local Newspaper Association at the Press Center in Jung-gu, Seoul, on the 27th, exchanging greetings. Photo by the National Assembly Press Photographers Group

[Asia Economy Reporter Koo Chae-eun] Lee Jae-myung, the Democratic Party presidential candidate, summarizes his breakthrough card as the preemption of a "practical livelihood reform agenda." Utilizing the legislative resources available to the ruling party with 169 seats to the fullest, his strategy is to appeal to voters by region and generation with tailored policies that "scratch where it itches," while emphasizing his image as a "competent administrator" and "policy expert," which is an advantage over candidate Yoon Seok-youl. The slogan set by Lee’s campaign headquarters on the 29th, "Properly from now on, Lee Jae-myung for me," encapsulates this election strategy.

The policies Lee has recently unveiled are precisely targeting specific demand groups. First, the real estate tax cut policy, launched with a party-level "working group," aims to appeal to Seoul voters. Examples include the temporary relaxation of the comprehensive real estate tax application criteria for two-homeowners, which the government is reviewing, acquisition tax reductions for first-time homebuyers, and the postponement of capital gains tax surcharges. This also reflects the public sentiment following the April 7 by-election defeat, which was evaluated as a "real estate tax election."

Lee Jae-myung, the presidential candidate of the Democratic Party of Korea, is delivering a keynote speech at a debate hosted by the Korea Newspaper and Broadcasting Editors Association held at the Press Center in Jung-gu, Seoul on the 30th. Photo by the National Assembly Press Photographers Group

According to the National Tax Service’s "2021 Comprehensive Real Estate Tax Notification Status by City and Province," the number of comprehensive real estate tax subjects in Seoul is 480,000, with tax revenue amounting to 2.7766 trillion won, accounting for 50.7% of the nationwide tax subjects. A campaign official said, "Real estate is the key battleground in this election, and since Seoul’s public sentiment has historically been the directional key in presidential elections, we will unveil practical reform agendas related to real estate over the remaining month before the Lunar New Year holiday." According to the National Election Commission’s 2020 general election data, the number of voters in Seoul was 8,465,419 (19.3%), second only to Gyeonggi Province (11,061,850 voters, 25.2%).

The "Small but Certain Happiness" (So-hwak-haeng) pledge, a livelihood-oriented policy, was prepared to target youth and women. Examples include a one-year postponement of virtual asset taxation, youth interview support, establishment of an online career certificate issuance system, expansion of health insurance coverage for contraceptive procedures, and measures to prevent fake videos misused by deepfakes. The strategy is to capture weak support groups with policies closely related to everyday life, which are sensitive to policy demanders. A campaign official said, "The characteristic of young voters in their 20s and 30s is that they reduce the risk of consumption failure by referring to samples or reviews regardless of their choice, and we believe this will also appear in the presidential election."

Lee Jae-myung, the presidential candidate of the Democratic Party of Korea, is holding a press conference to announce the pledge of "Smart Strong Army, Selective Conscription System" at the party headquarters in Yeouido, Seoul on the 24th. Photo by Yoon Dong-joo doso7@

Along with this, by emphasizing "practical reform" regardless of left or right camps, Lee is expected to target the moderate voters and also capture the "floating" vote. The day before, at a debate hosted by the Korea Newspaper and Broadcasting Editors Association, Lee said, "I intend to go toward a cooperative government, a unified government, and a practical cabinet without dividing camps as much as possible," adding, "If it is possible to form a coalition during the election process, wouldn’t that be much better? I hope so." This appears to mean that he is keeping all options open to form a coalition and cooperation with third-party figures to establish a unified and cooperative government. In other words, after consolidating the "home base" Democratic reform camp, he is launching the idea of election alliances and coalitions to secure an external base by targeting the "wild rabbits," or moderate voters.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.