[Agyeong Poll] Securing Jungwon Key to Victory... 'Jungdo's Change of Heart' Remains Biggest Variable Until Election End

2022 Presidential Election, Swing in the Race Due to Centrist Choice... 2030 Generation's 'Pragmatic Voting' Also a Variable
Presidential Candidates Without Halo Effect Vulnerable in Crisis... Chaos Until the Final Moments

[Asia Economy Reporters Ryu Jeong-min and Park Joon-yi]

Editor's NoteThe theory that winning the centrist vote is key to victory in the presidential election, known as the ‘Centrist Theory (中道論)’, is gaining renewed attention in this election. Both ruling and opposition parties are struggling with the ‘centrist change of heart,’ where voters initially show support for a particular candidate but then shift to the undecided bloc or even switch allegiance to competing candidates. This article analyzes why the center emerged as a key keyword in the 2022 presidential election and its potential impact on the race.

The 2022 Securities and Derivatives Market Opening Ceremony was held on the 3rd at the Korea Exchange Seoul Office in Yeouido, Seoul. Lee Jae-myung, the Democratic Party presidential candidate, and Yoon Seok-youl, the People Power Party presidential candidate, who attended the event, are shaking hands. Photo by the National Assembly Press Photographers Group

The defining feature of the 2022 election for the 20th president is that the traditional ‘political grammar’ that once determined the electoral landscape is being shaken. In the past, election outcomes were predicted based on regional and generational voting patterns. However, with the expansion of the centrist voter base, the political ‘central plain (中原)’ has broadened and become more complex.

In elections, the concept of the centrist bloc includes ideological centrists, non-affiliated voters, those who do not respond to polls, and ‘swing voters’ who change their vote depending on circumstances. In a broader sense, it can even extend to non-voters. Essentially, everyone except the core supporters known as ‘jittoek (집토끼)’ falls within the centrist category.

Um Kyung-young, director of the Era Spirit Research Institute, said, "The 2030 generation politically rose last year when they defected from the progressive camp during the April 7 by-elections," adding, "The center holds the casting vote."

The People Power Party (PPP), as a conservative party, is hopeful for the first time that it can secure the majority of the 2030 generation’s votes in a presidential election. The Democratic Party, with warning lights flashing, is focusing its efforts on winning the youth vote. Both parties recognize that securing the centrist base in the central plain is essential for victory.

◇Center: Qualitative Changes More Important Than Quantity= Past presidents who won elections shared the commonality of benefiting from a ‘political halo effect.’ For example, Park Geun-hye of the Saenuri Party succeeded in the 2012 election riding the nostalgia for former President Park Chung-hee. Moon Jae-in of the Democratic Party, who won the next election, is hard to explain without referencing ‘politician Roh Moo-hyun.’ The halo effect or sense of obligation influenced the election landscape.

In contrast, Democratic candidate Lee Jae-myung and People Power Party candidate Yoon Seok-youl lack such a presence. Candidates without a solid ‘concrete support base’ are vulnerable in crisis situations.

Lee Kwang-jae, secretary-general of the Korea Manifesto Implementation Headquarters, analyzed, "The outcome will depend on which candidate behaves less embarrassingly and disappointingly," adding, "Every time allegations or mistakes about candidates emerge, the undecided voter base expands, which is the trend in opinion polls."

A key indicator of the centrist bloc’s impact in the election is the performance of third-party forces. In the 2017 election, 65.1% of voters cast ballots for Democratic and Liberty Korea Party (predecessor of PPP) candidates, while 34.9% chose third-party political forces. The 2012 election was the opposite, with 99.6% of voters supporting Saenuri and Democratic United Party candidates, marking an unprecedented two-party dominance.

What about this election? The concentration of votes toward the two leading candidates is expected to be less than in 2012 but more intense than in 2017. Political experts agree that although the size of the centrist bloc may have shrunk compared to 2017, its importance has increased due to qualitative changes.

Park Sang-byeong, visiting professor at Inha University Graduate School of Policy, analyzed, "The characteristics of the center have become more segmented and are relatively concentrated among younger voters. People in the center tend to focus more on policies than political conflicts."

The variable is the centrist bloc’s willingness to vote. Voter turnout was 75.8% in 2012 and 77.2% in 2017. Over 20% of voters abstain. Whether the centrist bloc chooses to abstain or actively plays the role of ‘swing voters’ will determine the election’s course.

A view of the city center from the summit of Yongmasan in Jungnang-gu, Seoul. It was a tumultuous year marked by soaring real estate prices, the KOSPI reaching 3000, K-Culture heating up the global stage, the first launch of Nuriho, and the suspension of daily life recovery due to COVID-19 variants. In the new year, we hope that Korea will move toward a better world like a river flowing toward the vast ocean. / Photo by Mun Ho-nam munonam@

◇Centrist Interests Focus on ‘Pragmatic Issues’= To win over the fickle centrist voters, tailored strategies are necessary. Demonstrating competence from a pragmatic perspective on issues like real estate and jobs is crucial.

Political commentator Yoo Chang-sun predicted, "Seoul’s public sentiment has worsened due to failures in real estate policy," adding, "Seoul’s vote will be the barometer for the overall election." Seoul’s vote, which has historically been a stronghold for the Democratic Party, remains the top point of interest in this election. If the Democratic Party fails to reverse the critical public criticism of real estate among centrists, it will face a tough campaign.

The People Power Party is burdened by exposing ‘internal party conflicts’ disliked by centrists. If internal discord that began late last year continues into the new year, it increases the risk of centrist defections.

Park Sang-chul, professor at Kyonggi University Graduate School of Political Studies, diagnosed, "If candidate Yoon fails to give the impression of firmly controlling the party, the momentum for regime change could falter."

It is also noteworthy that centrist-leaning voters are likely to offer loose support until the final stages of the election. The ‘bandwagon’ effect may occur, where voters shift to the candidate perceived as most likely to win, or they may choose a third candidate. If political disenchantment peaks, some may even abstain from voting.

Professor Shin Yul of Myongji University’s Department of Political Science and Diplomacy said, "A characteristic of the center in this election is the tendency to support a candidate and then withdraw that support," adding, "Since they judge based on self-interest, they may change their preferred candidate near the end of the election."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.