Number of Critically Ill Patients in the 1000s for 9 Consecutive Days... When Will the Decline Begin?

[Asia Economy Reporter Kim Daehyun] The number of critically ill COVID-19 patients in South Korea has once again reached an all-time high.

While the shortage of hospital beds has been alleviated, providing some relief in treating critically ill patients, there are concerns that the number of severe cases could increase further depending on the spread of the Omicron variant.

According to the quarantine authorities on the 29th, as of midnight, the number of critically ill patients rose by 49 from the previous day to 1,151. The number of critically ill patients has remained in the 1,000 range for nine consecutive days since the 18th. The death toll increased by 36 from the previous day, reaching a cumulative total of 5,382 (fatality rate 0.87%).

Authorities Focus on Decrease in Elderly Proportion

Prime Minister Kim Boo-kyum stated at the Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasure Headquarters meeting that "the intensive care bed utilization rate in the metropolitan area remains high, and the number of critically ill patients exceeds 1,000." Initially, officials from the Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasure Headquarters had said on the 23rd that there would be a lag of about 4 to 5 days before the decrease in new confirmed cases would reflect in indicators such as critically ill patients and deaths, affecting the capacity to secure personnel and beds, but no noticeable changes have yet appeared.

The quarantine authorities are paying attention to the fact that the proportion of confirmed cases among the elderly aged 60 and over, who make up the majority of critically ill and deceased patients, has dropped from 30.5% to 25.5% in the past week, and that the third-dose vaccination rate among the elderly has surpassed 70%.

The number of COVID-19 treatment beds has significantly increased compared to the 1st of last month. Dedicated intensive care beds increased by 301 (from 1,083 to 1,384), semi-intensive care beds increased by 616 (from 455 to 1,071), and beds in infectious disease-dedicated hospitals (for moderate cases) increased by 3,727 (from 10,056 to 13,783). Prime Minister Kim said, "With the securing and operation of beds easing, the situation where patients had to wait more than a day for a bed has been completely resolved."

Treatment Introduction and Omicron Spread as Variables

There are also expectations that the number of critically ill patients will decrease once oral treatments are introduced next month and the bed situation stabilizes. Pfizer’s oral COVID-19 treatment, Paxlovid, is scheduled to be introduced in mid-January. If the treatment is actively distributed to the 27,858 home-treated patients as of midnight on the day, it is expected to help reduce the number of critically ill patients. Currently, medical personnel alone find it difficult to provide timely antibody treatment (injections) to home-treated patients, but with the introduction of oral treatments, these patients can take pills themselves.

The spread of Omicron remains the biggest variable. The detection rate of the Omicron variant increased sharply from 0.2% in the first week of this month to 1.8% in the third week. It is widely predicted that Omicron will become the dominant strain in South Korea between January and February. Jeong Eun-kyeong, Director of the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency, analyzed at the COVID-19 Recovery Support Committee meeting that "while overall quarantine indicators have begun to improve, risk factors such as the spread of the Omicron variant remain."

The relatively lower severity rate of Omicron compared to the Delta variant also deserves attention. Professor Choi Jae-wook of the Department of Preventive Medicine at Korea University said, "The Omicron variant leads to severe cases at less than half the rate of the Delta variant, so if Omicron becomes dominant, there will be more leeway in securing hospital beds."

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Kim emphasized, "Some have made hopeful predictions about Omicron based on its relatively low severity rate, but we must never be complacent," adding, "Even if the hospitalization rate is halved, if the number of confirmed cases doubles, the burden on medical response will ultimately remain the same."

On the 24th, medical staff are guiding citizens at the COVID-19 screening clinic at Songpa-gu Public Health Center in Seoul. Photo by Mun Honam munonam@

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.