Asan Institute: "The Biggest Risk Next Year Is the Potential Fracture of the Korea-US Alliance"

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Lee Ji-eun] The biggest risk in the field of diplomacy and security next year is predicted to be a fracture in the South Korea-US alliance.

On the 28th, the Asan Institute for Policy Studies held a virtual press conference to release the 'Asan International Situation Outlook 2022' report, forecasting that the United States and China will intensify their competition to rebuild the international order next year and subtly pressure countries to join the order they have established.

In this regard, Ko Myung-hyun, Senior Research Fellow at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies, said, "The biggest risk in 2022 is the fracture of the South Korea-US alliance," adding, "There are several rupture points, notably disagreements over the threat posed by North Korea, and another is China."

There was also a suggestion that South Korea must show a clear stance in the competition among major powers. Cha Doo-hyun, Chief Research Fellow at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies, pointed out, "(Our government’s) human rights stance on Myanmar differs from its stance on Xinjiang Uyghurs and North Korea," adding, "While we do not necessarily have to follow the United States or Japan, it is necessary to adopt a consistent policy."

Furthermore, in its outlook report for next year, the Asan Institute for Policy Studies predicted that North Korea will attempt to pressure the United States through new provocations such as launching a new type of submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM), conducting a second hypersonic glide vehicle (HGV) test, and launching a new submarine. The report also mentioned the possibility that if the United States does not respond significantly to these provocations, North Korea may choose to resume launches of medium- and long-range missiles including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and restart nuclear tests.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.