China to Surpass the US as World's Largest Economy by 2030

UK Think Tank CEBR 'World Economic Rankings 2022' Report
South Korea Ranks 10th in Global Economic Size

Chinese President Xi Jinping [Photo by Xinhua News Agency]

[Asia Economy Reporter Lee Chun-hee] An analysis has emerged that China will surpass the United States to become the world's largest economy by 2030, nine years from now.

The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR), a UK think tank, stated in its 'World Economic League Table (WELT) 2022' report on the 26th (local time) that the share of the United States' GDP, currently the world's largest, in global GDP is continuously decreasing, and by 2030, China is expected to overtake the US to become number one globally. However, due to the US's GDP growth exceeding expectations this year, the point of overtaking has been delayed by two years from the previously suggested 2028 to 2030.

CEBR forecasted that although China's growth rate will somewhat slow down, it will still maintain a higher growth rate than other advanced countries. CEBR projected China's growth rate to reach an average annual 5.7% from 2020 to 2025. Then, from 2025 to 2030, it is expected to slightly decelerate but still maintain a high 4.7%, and from 2030 to 2035, it is analyzed to show a 3.8% growth rate, which is higher than most advanced countries.

Along with this, CEBR predicted that the total global GDP will surpass $100 trillion (approximately 11,875 trillion KRW) for the first time next year. CEBR noted that this projection assumes the world economy will recover from the damage caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, but also warned that if inflation persists, there is a possibility of an economic recession.

Thanks to the performance of key industries such as semiconductors, shipbuilding, and automobiles, South Korea's annual export volume this year has reached an all-time high. This valuable achievement was made by overcoming various challenges, including export-import logistics difficulties and COVID-19 variant viruses. Export cargo is being loaded onto an Asiana Airlines cargo plane at the Incheon International Airport cargo terminal at dawn. Photo by Moon Honam munonam@

Meanwhile, in the 2021 world economic ranking presented by CEBR, South Korea ranked 10th with $1.669 trillion (approximately 198.2 trillion KRW). It was listed at the end of the 'Top 10' following the United States, China, Japan, Germany, the United Kingdom, France, India, Italy, and Canada.

CEBR analyzed South Korea's economy this year by stating, "The performance of conglomerates such as Samsung, LG, and Hyundai stood out," and added, "This was influenced by the surge in demand for electronic equipment during the pandemic and changes in the work environment such as remote work." It also forecasted that South Korea's economy, which heavily depends on exports, will benefit greatly if global trade recovers after the COVID-19 pandemic.

CEBR projected South Korea's economic growth rate for next year at 3.3%, which is higher than the South Korean government's forecast of 3.1% and the Bank of Korea's 3.0%. The forecast for 2023 is 2.8%, and the projection through 2036 is 2.4%. The report suggested that during this period, South Korea will lose its 10th place in the world economy ranking to Brazil in 2026, and by 2036, it will be overtaken by Indonesia and Russia, dropping to 12th place.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.