Analysis of 20 Years of Population Trends in Seoul: Births Down 64%, Marriages Down 43%

Number of births in 2020 was 47,445, about one-third of 2000 levels
Number of marriages sharply dropped from 78,745 in 2000 to 44,746 in 2020

[Asia Economy Reporter Lim Cheol-young] The number of births in Seoul last year decreased by more than 11% compared to 2019 and plummeted to less than half compared to 20 years ago in 2000. The total fertility rate, which was 1.28 in 2000, also sharply dropped to 0.64, and the proportion of second child births fell by more than 11 percentage points.

On the other hand, as the elderly population increased, the number of deaths last year rose by 4% compared to 2019. Due to natural decrease, where the number of births is less than the number of deaths, Seoul's total population fell below 10 million for the first time last year, and this natural decrease is expected to continue this year as well.

On the 16th, Seoul City released an analysis of population trends over the past 20 years using data from the Statistics Korea Population Trend Survey to understand changes in Seoul's population caused by marriage, divorce, births, and deaths.

The analysis results indicate that the natural decrease trend in Seoul's population is expected to continue. The number of births last year was 47,445, a decrease of 11.6% (6,228) compared to 2019, and a 64.3% decrease (85,709) compared to 20 years ago in 2000. The number of births, which was about 133,000 in 2000, sharply dropped to below 50,000 last year.

As the number of births decreased, the total fertility rate also declined, dropping from 1.28 in 2000 to 0.64 in 2020, about half of what it was 20 years ago. With the average age at marriage rising, the average age of women giving birth has also increased; the average age at childbirth in 2020 was 33.98 years, up 4.49 years from 29.49 years in 2000.

Furthermore, the age groups of women accounting for 80% of childbirth shifted. From 2000 to 2002, the top age groups were 25-29 and 30-34, but from 2003 to 2012, it was 30-34 and 25-29, and since 2013, the order has been 30-34 and 35-39, indicating a gradual delay in childbirth age.

The average time from marriage to the birth of the first child exceeds two years. Last year, the average duration of marriage until the first child was 2.6 years, which is 0.6 years longer than in 2010, ten years ago, and 0.1 years longer than the previous year. Births of second children or more have also decreased; the proportion of second or higher-order births was 47.6% in 2000 but dropped by 11.2 percentage points to 36.4% in 2020.

During the same period, the number of deaths in Seoul was 45,522, an increase of 1,693 (4.0%) compared to 2019. The number of deaths, which was less than 40,000 in 2000, exceeded 40,000 in 2010 and surpassed 45,000 last year. In particular, the proportion of deaths among those aged 80 and over accounted for 45.7% of total deaths, increasing by 14.0 percentage points compared to 10 years ago and 20.9 percentage points compared to 20 years ago.

Life expectancy also increased. Life expectancy rose from 79.8 years in 2005, to 82.0 years in 2011, and 84.8 years in 2020, with a gender gap of 5 to 6 years, women living longer than men. The main causes of death were neoplasms and circulatory system diseases, accounting for 50.2% of deaths. Deaths due to COVID-19 numbered 201. Suicide peaked at 2,668 in 2010 and has steadily decreased since, stabilizing after 2018.

Accordingly, Seoul's population, which surpassed 10 million in 1988, fell below 10 million in 2020, and the downward trend is expected to continue this year. Natural decrease occurs when the number of deaths exceeds the number of births; in 2020, 47,445 people were born in Seoul, and 45,522 died, approaching a natural decrease of 1,923.

Seoul City explained, "Monthly population trend analysis shows that natural decrease was first observed in Seoul in December 2018, followed by October 2020 and July 2021. Considering the faster population decline and the monthly decrease in natural increase compared to other years, Seoul is expected to have entered natural decrease or have a natural increase close to zero in 2021."

Meanwhile, the number of marriages among Seoul citizens last year was 44,746, marking the lowest level in 20 years. The number of marriages in 2019 was 48,261, a 7.3% decrease from the previous year, and a 43.2% decrease compared to 20 years ago in 2000. The average age at first marriage was 33.61 years for men and 31.60 years for women, and over the past 20 years, the average age at first marriage has steadily increased by 3.96 years for men and 4.35 years for women.

Divorces decreased by 4.1% in one year. Since 2000, the average annual number of divorces has been 22,390, with the number of divorces among Seoul citizens peaking at 32,499 in 2003 and showing a continuous downward trend since then. Changes were also detected in the duration of marriage among divorced couples. Until 2019, couples married for four years or less accounted for the majority of divorces, but in 2020, couples married for 30 years or more accounted for 20.6% of all divorces, surpassing the 17.6% divorce rate of couples married for four years or less. Accordingly, the average duration of marriage among divorced couples increased to 18.5 years, seven years longer than 20 years ago, and the average age at divorce has been rising annually.

The average age at divorce was 51.1 years for men and 48.3 years for women, increasing by 10.3 years and 10.9 years respectively compared to 20 years ago, and rising by 0.8 years for both men and women compared to the previous year. The increase in marriage age and the rise in divorces among couples married for 30 years or more are interpreted as factors contributing to the continuous increase in average divorce age.

Park Jong-su, Director of Smart City Policy, said, "To respond to structural imbalances caused by rapid population changes and minimize population risks, Seoul City has formed and operated a dedicated organization for population change response since July. This analysis data will be used as basic material for preparing Seoul City's population change response strategy."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.