In 50 Years, the Working Population Will Be 'Halved'... Population Cliff Becomes Visible

[Sejong=Asia Economy Reporter Son Seonhee] It is projected that by 2070, South Korea's working-age population (ages 15-64) will shrink to about half of its current size. Starting this year, South Korea's population has entered a natural decline trend, making the anticipated 'population cliff' due to sustained low birth rates increasingly visible.

According to Statistics Korea's recently released "2020-2070 Future Population Projections," the working-age population is expected to decrease to 33.81 million by 2030, and further decline to 17.37 million by 2070. This represents only 46.5% of last year's figure (37.38 million), less than half.

The youth population (ages 19-34) is projected to fall from 10.96 million last year to 4.99 million by 2070, less than half, while the elderly population aged 65 and above is expected to rise from 8.15 million to 17.47 million during the same period. The proportion of elderly population is forecasted to exceed 20% in 2025, 30% in 2035, and 40% in 2050.

These projections assume medium levels of fertility rate, life expectancy, and international migration. Under a low assumption scenario applying lower values, the working-age population would decrease even more, to 33.32 million (66.4%) in 2030 and 14.08 million (44.6%) in 2070.

The child population (ages 0-14) is expected to decline from 6.31 million (12.2%) last year to 2.82 million (7.5%) by 2070. Last year, the elderly population was 1.3 times larger than the child population, but by 2070, it is projected to be 6.2 times larger. This forecast assumes the total fertility rate will hit a low of 0.70 in 2024 and then rebound to 1.21 by 2070.

These projections assume medium levels of fertility rate, life expectancy, and international migration. Under a low assumption scenario applying lower values, the working-age population would decrease even more, to 33.32 million (66.4%) in 2030 and 14.08 million (44.6%) in 2070.

Statistics Korea stated, "From 2020, when the baby boom generation transitions from the working-age population to the elderly population, fluctuations in population by age group are expected to become more pronounced."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.