"No Money, No Choice" 2030 Leaving Seoul Amid Soaring Housing Prices [Heo Midam's Youth Report]

3.41 Million People Left Seoul in the Past 6 Years... 46% of Entire 20s and 30s Generations
Kyungsilryeon "Seoul 30-Pyeong House Prices Doubled in 4 Years"
Experts "Seoul Exodus Trend to Continue Next Year"

Citizens are looking at apartment complexes in the Songpa-gu area from the Seoul Lotte World Tower observatory, 'Seoul Sky.' The photo is unrelated to specific expressions in the article. [Image source=Yonhap News]

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[Asia Economy Reporter Heo Midam] As apartment sale and jeonse prices in Seoul skyrocket, real demanders feeling the burden are ultimately leaving Seoul and moving to surrounding areas, continuing the 'de-Seoulization' phenomenon this year as well. Especially, the 2030 generation, who do not have many assets, are lamenting that "Seoul housing prices are unaffordable," and are inevitably leaving Seoul. Experts predict that the de-Seoulization trend among young people will continue.

According to a recent analysis by real estate research firm Realtoday of domestic population migration statistics from the National Statistical Portal (KOSIS), 3,414,397 Seoul citizens moved to other regions over six years from 2015 to last year. This averages to about 569,066 people leaving Seoul annually. This year, up to September, 434,209 people joined the de-Seoul migration.

In particular, the de-Seoulization phenomenon is prominent among the 2030 generation. From 2015 to last year, the 2030 generation accounted for 46.0% of those who left Seoul. By age group, those in their 30s were the largest at 24.1%, followed by those in their 20s (22.0%), 40s (14.1%), and 50s (11.8%).

The youth's de-Seoulization is linked to the sharp rise in housing prices. With Seoul apartment sale and jeonse prices rising sharply over several years, the 2030 generation, who have a shorter income accumulation period, find it difficult to buy homes in Seoul and thus have no choice but to leave.

Meanwhile, a civic group analysis showed that since the inauguration of the Moon Jae-in administration, the average price of a 30-pyeong apartment in Seoul has risen by 670 million KRW (109%).

According to the Citizens' Coalition for Economic Justice (CCEJ), the price per pyeong (3.3㎡) of Seoul apartments was 20.61 million KRW in May 2017 when the Moon administration began, but by November this year, 4 years and 6 months later, it rose to 43.09 million KRW, a 109% increase. For a 30-pyeong apartment, this means a price increase from 620 million KRW to 1.29 billion KRW.

A real estate agency located in Seoul. The photo is unrelated to specific expressions in the article. [Image source=Yonhap News]

Given this situation, the hardships of young people in 'owning a home' are growing. One netizen lamented on a real estate community, "It seems many people are being 'driven out' of Seoul these days. It's a case of the rich getting richer and the poor getting poorer. No matter how much salary the poor earn, they cannot 'own a home.' In the end, those with money live comfortably in good residential environments, while struggling commoners are forced to move to other regions."

As a result of the de-Seoulization phenomenon, the population of major metropolitan areas near Seoul is rapidly increasing every year. Hanam City in Gyeonggi Province saw its population increase by 92.8% from 2015 to 2020, followed by Hwaseong City (55.5%), Gimpo City (45%), Siheung City (33.8%), and Gwangju City (32.4%).

Some argue that fundamental and practical measures are needed to ease the burden of Seoul housing prices. The government has issued dozens of real estate policies over the past four years to stabilize prices, but each time transaction volumes fluctuated, ironically fueling price increases.

Consequently, petitions criticizing real estate policies have been posted one after another. One petitioner posted on the 7th a petition titled "Please stop the plan to ease capital gains tax," stating, "Please stop changing housing regulations back and forth. It only destroys trust."

However, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economy and Finance Hong Nam-ki recently stated that the housing market has entered a stabilization phase. At a real estate market inspection meeting held at the Government Complex Sejong on the 8th, Deputy Prime Minister Hong said, "Measures such as pre-sale of houses, designation of planned districts under the 2·4 Plan, along with interest rate hikes and strengthened household debt management, have made the recent housing market stabilization trend more solid."

He added, "In the sales market, apartment prices in some areas of Seoul have stabilized to levels just before entering a decline, and half of the actual transactions in November were flat or down compared to previous transactions."

Experts predict that the de-Seoulization trend among young people will continue next year. Professor Kim Taegi of Dankook University's Department of Economics said, "Young people feeling burdened by Seoul housing prices continue to leave Seoul. This trend is expected to continue. Recently, the rate of apartment price increases has slowed somewhat. If housing supply increases next year, the downward trend in real estate prices may become more pronounced."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.