"Omicron Toxicity May Be Lower"... Could It Trigger COVID-19 Endemic Transition?

Domestic Confirmed Cases Mild or Asymptomatic
If Severity Is Low Compared to Infectiousness,
Could Be a 'Gift' to End the Pandemic

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Chunhee Lee] As the COVID-19 Omicron variant rapidly spreads across the globe, discussions about the risks associated with the Omicron variant are heating up. Some speculate that if the Omicron variant has high transmissibility but low virulence, it could be a "Christmas gift" that ends the pandemic. However, since it is still in the early stages of spread, many voices caution against premature optimism.

On the 3rd, the health authorities revealed that the health conditions of five confirmed domestic Omicron variant cases were all mild or asymptomatic. Some confirmed cases showed mild symptoms such as low-grade fever and headache, but none were reported to be in serious condition. The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) also stated that all 79 confirmed Omicron variant cases in Europe (excluding the UK) were either asymptomatic or mild.

Some hope that the emergence of the Omicron variant could mark the turning point for COVID-19 to transition into an endemic phase with periodic outbreaks. Typically, viruses tend to evolve through continuous mutations to increase transmissibility while reducing virulence, allowing the host to survive longer and increasing the virus's activity, making such variants dominant.

Professor Baek Soon-young, Emeritus Professor at the Catholic University College of Medicine, analyzed, "There is not enough clinical epidemiological investigation yet, so this is based only on circumstantial evidence," adding, "It appears that symptoms are less severe than those of the Delta variant." He said, "If the transmission rate is fast but the rate of severe cases is low, many people could become infected, bringing humanity closer to herd immunity."

The fact that vaccines and oral treatments retain some efficacy against the Omicron variant also supports the argument that the risk posed by Omicron may not be significant. Oral treatments developed by Merck and Pfizer work by preventing the virus from replicating after entering the body, so they are expected to be effective regardless of viral mutations.

Vaccines have dual effects: activating antibodies that bind to the spike protein to block the virus from attaching to human cells, and activating immune cells that directly attack COVID-19 infected cells. While preventive efficacy may decrease, protection against severe illness is expected to be maintained to some extent.

However, most experts agree that the situation should not be viewed optimistically. Professor Baek emphasized, "In the case of the Delta variant, both transmissibility and virulence increased," adding, "It is still too early to make definitive judgments."

The significantly higher reinfection rate associated with Omicron compared to previous variants is also a cause for concern. On the 2nd (local time), the South African Centre for Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis (SACEMA) and the National Institute for Communicable Diseases (NICD) analyzed epidemiological data from South Africa from March 2020 to the 27th of last month and reported that "the Omicron variant carries a reinfection risk three times higher than the Delta and Beta variants."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.