"This Year's Exports Reach $636.2 Billion, Record High Performance... Growth Expected to Continue Next Year"

Korea International Trade Association International Trade and Commerce Research Institute, '2021 Export-Import Evaluation and 2022 Outlook' Report

Koo Ja-yeol, Chairman of the Korea International Trade Association
[Photo by Korea International Trade Association]

[Asia Economy Reporter Kim Heung-soon] It is expected that South Korea's exports will exceed $630 billion this year, achieving the highest annual performance ever. Growth is expected to continue next year, centered on key items such as semiconductors.

The Korea International Trade Association's International Trade and Commerce Research Institute forecasted in its "2021 Export-Import Evaluation and 2022 Outlook" released on the 22nd that this year's exports will increase by 24.1% from the previous year to $636.2 billion, and imports will increase by 29.5% to $605.7 billion. Next year, exports are projected to increase by 2.1% from this year to $649.8 billion, and imports by 1.6% to $615.4 billion.

By item, it is expected that the favorable business conditions of items that performed well this year, such as semiconductors, petroleum products, textiles, displays, and wireless communication devices, will continue into next year. Despite the decline in DRAM prices, semiconductors are expected to maintain a strong performance due to large-scale server replacement demand following the launch of the latest central processing units (CPUs), the generational shift to DDR5 DRAM, and robust excess demand for system semiconductors, with exports expected to exceed $100 billion for the second consecutive year. In addition, exports of major information and communication technology (ICT) items such as displays (4.0%), SSDs (1.5%), and wireless communication devices (2.0%) are expected to steadily grow alongside the expansion of the non-face-to-face economy.

Petroleum products (14.0%) are also expected to see a significant increase in exports as price rises continue into next year, and petrochemicals (1.7%) are expected to increase exports centered on synthetic resins due to demand for disposable products and industrial normalization following the spread of "With Corona" (gradual return to normal life). In addition, textile exports (5.0%) are expected to perform well, centered on high value-added clothing fabrics such as spandex.

However, steel (-9.0%) is expected to see a decline in exports as product prices, which had risen excessively, stabilize downward. Auto parts (-1.0%) are expected to show a slight decline compared to this year due to the prolonged semiconductor supply shortage. Shipbuilding (-5.0%) is expected to see a decrease in delivery volumes next year due to reduced orders before and after the COVID-19 pandemic. Home appliances (-8%) are expected to have an overall bright market condition due to the popularization of the Internet of Things (IoT) and smart homes, but exports are expected to decline due to the trend of expanding overseas production over several years.

The report stated, "Next year, South Korea's exports are expected to continue growing amid the global economic recovery led by advanced economies," but added, "Global supply chain disruptions, China's economic slowdown, and rising inflation in major countries will act as factors restricting exports."

Regarding imports, it is forecasted that they will slightly increase (1.6%) compared to this year due to domestic economic recovery, international oil price trends at the level of the second half of this year, and steadily maintained raw material prices. Accordingly, the trade surplus is expected to slightly expand to $34.4 billion compared to this year.

Meanwhile, the Trade Association will hold the "2022 Global Economic Outlook Seminar" at the Trade Tower in Samseong-dong, Seoul, in the afternoon, sharing with the industry the export environment by sector for next year, global trade environment outlook, recent export-import logistics status, and export environments of major markets such as the United States, China, and the European Union (EU).

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.