"Unintentional Escalation Risks Increase in Inter-Korean Arms Race"

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu, Military Specialist Reporter] It has been pointed out that if the arms race between South and North Korea continues, it could create accidental escalation factors.

On the 18th, Toby Dalton, Director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said at the 7th Army Power Forum jointly hosted by the Army and Sogang University Army Power Research Institute at the Dragon City Hotel in Seoul, "The missile era on the Korean Peninsula is characterized by an arms race," adding, "The arms race is a choice made by leaders and is far from inevitable."

Director Dalton stated that the more the arms race between the South and North continues, the more both sides will acquire various new missile capabilities, increasing the risk of escalation accordingly.

He pointed out, "Missile systems themselves create new accidental escalation factors such as launches caused by accidents, unplanned launches, and uncontrolled tests," and added, "Sending signals or warnings by missile is a particularly dangerous action that can cause accidental escalation."

For example, in an emergency, North Korea may raise its readiness posture or issue alerts to missile forces as a signal of crisis breakthrough will or retaliation warning, which South Korea might misinterpret and launch a preemptive strike to prevent damage.

Director Dalton emphasized, "It should be considered that choosing unilateral arms limitation can be more helpful for security than enhancing weapon capabilities," and added, "Self-imposed arms limitations are often unpopular with the military, defense industry, and voters, but they should be considered as they may open a door to diplomacy that improves stability."

Meanwhile, at the forum held under the theme of 'Army Space Power Development, Change and Innovation,' various presentations and discussions were held, including Colonel Lee Jun-wang, Head of the Army Headquarters Space and Science Technology Policy Division's 'Army Space Power Development Direction,' and Dr. Joo Kwang-hyuk of the Korea Aerospace Research Institute's 'Army Space Power Development Direction Utilizing Civilian Space Technology.'

Army Chief of Staff Nam Young-shin said, "There is a consensus that space is a domain encompassing land, sea, air, and cyber, and joint operations are essential," adding, "The Army will focus its capabilities on developing army space power in connection with the Ministry of National Defense and Joint Chiefs of Staff's promotion tasks."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.