[AK Survey] 'Swing Voters' in Their 20s, 52.7% Say "Support Candidate May Change"

Four-Party Structure Completed, but Proportion of Undecided Voters Rising
Over 20% of 2030 Age Group Say "No Candidate to Vote For"

[Asia Economy Reporter Park Jun-yi] As the lineup for next year’s presidential election is tentatively set as a ‘four-way race,’ the ‘2030’ generation is emerging as the swing voters who will determine the outcome of the main election. This group has a strong desire for a regime change but is observing the situation, calling it a ‘dislike Olympics’ because there is no candidate they actually want to vote for.

On the 9th, Asia Economy commissioned Win-G Korea Consulting to conduct a public opinion survey (100% mobile phone virtual numbers, automated response) targeting 1,005 voters aged 18 and older nationwide from the 6th to 7th. The survey on presidential performance evaluation showed that 57.8% responded that the president is ‘doing poorly.’ This marks a continuous increase over the last three surveys. Conversely, the positive evaluation rate was 39.7%, marking a decline for the fourth consecutive time. This directly reflects the desire for regime change. The percentage of respondents hoping for a ‘regime change to the People Power Party’ was 50.8%, while those wanting ‘regime continuation by the Democratic Party’ was 34.8%. The difference was 16 percentage points. Compared to the previous survey (conducted on the 23rd-24th of last month), the proportion of respondents wanting regime continuation decreased significantly (-5.7 percentage points), widening the gap further.

This aspiration was also reflected in party support rates. The People Power Party’s support rate was 38.4%, 5.5 percentage points higher than the Democratic Party’s 32.9%, within the margin of error. Despite the Democratic Party’s Lee Jae-myung being finalized as the presidential candidate on the 10th of last month and the People Power Party’s candidate Yoon Seok-youl facing controversies such as the ‘dog apple incident,’ no change in ranking was observed.

However, this reflects the overall public opinion landscape; the situation differs when focusing solely on the 2030 generation’s voting intentions. In the party support survey, the proportion of respondents who answered ‘no party support or don’t know’ exceeded 20% in their 20s at 21.1% and 30s at 20.9%. This is significantly higher compared to other age groups (40s 12%, 50s 11.7%, 60 and above 9%).

Particularly noteworthy is the sharp rise in the proportion of non-affiliated voters since last month. In the last three surveys, the proportion of non-affiliated voters in their 20s rose from 8.1% to 15.4% to 21.1%. This is related to the mass defection of supporters of Representative Hong, who had received strong support from the 2030 generation after Yoon was selected as the candidate, as well as the high dislike ratings of the remaining candidates. Although the four-way race among Yoon, Lee, Shim Sang-jung of the Justice Party, and Ahn Cheol-soo of the People’s Party is complete, none of them are attracting the 2030 generation’s votes.

The same applies to multi-candidate contests. In the candidate suitability survey, the response of ‘no suitable candidate or don’t know’ accounted for 20.1% in their 20s and 18% in their 30s. All other age groups were below 10%. Even if they have a preferred party or candidate, their voting intentions are highly likely to change at any time. Especially in their 20s, when asked ‘Will you continue to support the candidate you currently support?’ the highest response was ‘It may change depending on the situation.’ This response was 52.7%, the only age group exceeding a majority.

The 2030 generation is also the most vocal in criticizing the current administration. In the presidential performance evaluation survey, those who responded ‘doing poorly’ were 69.6% in their 20s and 57.6% in their 30s, ranking among the highest across all age groups. The desire for regime change to the People Power Party was also higher in the 20s at 53.2% and 30s at 41.9% than the desire for regime continuation. Nevertheless, the ‘don’t know’ response was 13.4% and 13.2%, respectively, higher than the 40-60s age groups, which were below 10%.

Regarding the voting intentions of the 2030 generation, Park Si-young, CEO of Win-G Consulting Korea, said on TBS Radio’s ‘Kim Eo-jun’s News Factory’ on the same day, “Candidate Yoon is not absorbing Representative Hong Jun-pyo’s 2030 votes. Then can Candidate Lee absorb those votes? That is not simple either,” adding, “It will take quite a long time and effort.” This means that aside from the fact that the 2030 generation wants regime change, it still seems uncertain who they will ultimately support.

This survey was conducted by Asia Economy commissioning Win-G Korea Consulting targeting voters aged 18 and older nationwide from the 6th to 7th, with 1,005 respondents and an overall response rate of 6.7%. The survey method was wireless ARS using 100% mobile phone virtual numbers, and the sample was extracted with weighting by gender, age, and region based on the resident registration population as of the end of January 2021 by the Ministry of the Interior and Safety (cell weighting). The sampling error is ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For detailed survey information, refer to the Win-G Korea Consulting website or the Central Election Survey Deliberation Commission website.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.