[Yes and No] The 2030 Vote Sentiment Held by Yoon Seok-yeol

Members of the People Power Party (PPP) in their 20s and 30s who supported candidate Hong Jun-pyo are reportedly collectively resigning from the party in disappointment over the primary results. Their withdrawal of support could be a disadvantage to candidate Yoon Seok-youl, who is particularly unpopular among the 2030 generation. However, a recent poll conducted over the past weekend did not indicate such a trend.

The PPP's approval rating among people in their 20s rose to 41.7%, up from 39.4% in the previous survey. Although the approval rating among those in their 30s dropped from 37.4% to 30.9%, and the number of respondents with 'no preferred party' increased?likely reflecting the impact of Hong's elimination?this was not enough to affect the overall party support landscape. Of course, whether the 2030 generation's defection will intensify into a significant 'wind' remains to be seen over time. At this point, the speculation that the 2030 supporters of Hong will shift their support to candidates other than Yoon is merely a 'wish' of those hoping for such a change.

The fervent support for Hong among the 2030 generation is reasonably seen not only because he is 'Hong Jun-pyo' but also as an expression of the 'anti-government sentiment' prevalent in that generation. The presidential approval rating among the 2030 age group is the lowest across all age groups. This is likely due to controversies over unfairness and double standards triggered by the Cho Kuk incident, as well as failures in real estate policies including the Daejang-dong issue. The opinion that the responsibility for the Daejang-dong scandal lies with Lee Jae-myung, the Democratic Party presidential candidate, is highest among those aged 60 and above at 69.7%, followed closely by those in their 20s at 68.8%. The 30s age group is somewhat lower at 49.8%, but still more inclined to blame Lee than the People Power Party. If the 2030 vote is indeed decisive in this presidential election, these poll results could be grounds to view Yoon's chances of winning favorably. In fact, after Hong's exit from the presidential race, Yoon's approval rating surged, surpassing Lee by more than 8 percentage points.

The shift in the traditionally progressive youth demographic offers much to consider. The diagnosis that the 2030 generation has become conservative is superficial. They are a generation that has departed from the traditional framework of establishing their beliefs?whether progressive, moderate, or conservative?during their growth and then choosing candidates based on that identity. Rather, they appear to be citizens sensitive to class interests and engaged in exercising their civic rights accordingly. They perceive that the current administration has implemented policies detrimental to their lives and that they have suffered due to the administration's double standards. The question of why voters, especially those in low-income brackets, vote for political forces that do not align with their interests is an old one, but the 2030 generation is rendering that complex question meaningless through their actions. In this respect, the 2030 generation may be the most pragmatic and wise voter group we have witnessed.

However, whether the current conservative party offers solutions that will enrich the lives of the 2030 generation requires separate questions and answers. There is also doubt as to whether Yoon Seok-youl, the party's candidate, presents such a vision. The shift of the 2030 vote from Hong Jun-pyo to Yoon Seok-youl is a confirmed reflective benefit but may be a temporary phenomenon. While only 27.6% of the public said they are willing to change their preferred candidate, 52.7% of those in their 20s and 40.3% of those in their 30s responded that they might do so. Electing a candidate who seems 'legally' most capable of punishing the president and his inner circle for their double standards will not necessarily improve the lives of the 2030 generation. Can Yoon fill the void that Hong Jun-pyo possesses but he lacks? The 2030 generation is waiting for an answer.

Shin Beom-su, Chief of Political Affairs

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.