Hong Jun-pyo, Now a 'Narrow Margin' with Yoon Seok-yeol Even Considering Party Sentiment... "Unpredictable Close Race"

Based on NBS Poll, Public Sentiment and Party Sentiment Swapped Show 2%p Close Race
Last Week's Poll Showed Yoon Seok-yeol Leading by 14.5%, but Situation Changed
Polls Show Hong Joon-pyo Leading, Yoon Seok-yeol Leads Among People Power Supporters

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Naju-seok] The People Power Party's main primary is conducted with 50% party support and 50% public opinion polls. Many polls show that Representative Hong Joon-pyo leads in public opinion, or "the will of the people." On the other hand, former Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-youl is favored in party support. However, recent various polls indicate that Representative Hong has significantly closed the gap with former Prosecutor General Yoon even in party support. This suggests an unpredictable, neck-and-neck situation for the final People Power Party presidential candidate.

Based on the National Barometer Survey (NBS) conducted by four polling firms?Embrain Public, K-Stat Research, Korea Research, and Hankook Research?general public opinion was classified as the will of the people, and People Power Party supporters' opinions as party support. The results showed that Candidate Hong closely pursued former Prosecutor General Yoon. The NBS uses a four-choice format selecting only among the four People Power Party candidates, and the survey method is not automated response system (ARS) but a polling method similar in structure to the party's primary system. It also allows observation of changes in public opinion trends with reduced house effect (variation in poll results depending on the commissioning media).

According to the results from last week (surveyed from the 18th to 20th) and this week (surveyed from the 25th to 27th), former Prosecutor General Yoon's support dropped from 25% to 20%, while Representative Hong's support rose from 22% to 25%. Yoon's remarks about former President Jeon Du-hwan and the dog apology controversy influenced public opinion. Notably, the change in opinion among respondents who expressed support for the People Power Party draws attention. Since it is impossible to directly confirm the votes of party members with voting rights, the opinions of People Power Party supporters serve as a key to understanding party support. Within the People Power Party supporters, Yoon's support fell from 54% to 47%, while Hong's support increased from 28% to 38%.

When converting the overall poll results to the will of the people and the People Power Party supporters' responses to party support, former Prosecutor General Yoon is estimated to receive 39.5% in the party's presidential primary system ((25% public opinion + 54% party support) / 2). In contrast, Representative Hong's support rate is 25% by the same calculation. However, based on the support rates a week later, Yoon's support drops to 33.5%, and Hong's rises to 31.5%.

Kim Bong-shin, CEO of Metavoice, analyzed, "As of last week, considering party support and the will of the people, there was a 14.5 percentage point gap between the two candidates, but in just one week, it narrowed to 2 percentage points," adding, "The two candidates are almost neck and neck, making the outcome difficult to predict."

This week's and last week's regular NBS surveys were conducted on 1,003 adults aged 18 and over, with a sampling error of ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For detailed survey information, refer to the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.