Japanese Media: "LDP and Komeito Maintain Majority in House of Representatives Election"…LDP Seats Decrease

▲Fumio Kishida, Prime Minister of Japan [Image source=AP Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Kwon Jae-hee] In the Japanese House of Representatives election (general election) held on the 31st, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is expected to maintain a majority of seats together with its coalition partner, the Komeito Party. However, due to the effect of opposition candidate unification, the LDP's seats are expected to decrease while opposition seats are expected to increase.

On the 21st, the Mainichi Shimbun reported based on a telephone opinion poll conducted from the 19th to 20th targeting voters aged 18 and over (with 174,024 respondents) that although the LDP is likely to lose seats, it is expected to maintain a majority (233 seats or more) together with the coalition partner Komeito.

Mainichi predicted that the LDP would secure 224 to 284 seats, and Komeito would secure 26 to 30 seats.

Currently, the LDP holds 276 seats and Komeito holds 29 seats. Out of the total 465 seats in the House of Representatives, the LDP alone holds 59.4%, and combined with Komeito, they hold 65.6%.

The main opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party (110 seats, previous seat count), is expected to hold 88 to 146 seats; the Communist Party (12 seats) is expected to hold 16 to 18 seats; and the Democratic Party for the People (8 seats) is expected to hold 5 to 9 seats.

Mainichi classified 63 out of the total 289 constituencies as battleground districts.

If the LDP loses more than 44 seats, it will lose its outright majority.

The Constitutional Democratic Party is expected to increase its seats by about 20 due to the effect of opposition candidate unification.

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

The Nihon Keizai Shimbun also reported based on a telephone opinion poll conducted during the same period targeting voters (186,863 respondents) that the coalition government is expected to secure "a majority of 233 seats or more."

This means there is a high possibility that the LDP and Komeito will secure a majority and maintain the coalition government.

Nihon Keizai analyzed that in 40% of the 289 constituencies, candidates from the ruling and opposition parties are in close competition, and if ruling party candidates win many of these battleground districts, they could reach an "absolute stable majority" (261 seats).

An absolute stable majority is the number of seats that allows the coalition to monopolize the chair positions of all standing committees in the House of Representatives and secure a majority of members in each committee, enabling smooth passage of legislation. The LDP and Komeito have secured an absolute stable majority in three past general elections, including the December 2012 election when they regained power from the former Democratic Party.

Kyodo News reported based on a telephone opinion poll conducted on the 19th and 20th targeting voters (174,000 respondents) that the LDP is leading in 190 out of 289 constituencies and is close to securing the previous 66 proportional representation seats.

Although this does not reach the previous total of 276 seats, it suggests the possibility of an outright majority.

However, Kyodo News noted that nearly 30% of voters have not yet decided their vote, indicating that the situation could still change.

Meanwhile, Mainichi and Yomiuri predicted that the right-wing Japan Innovation Party (11 seats) will make significant gains, increasing its seats by about three times.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.