[The Editors' Verdict] No Future in Sight Due to Low Birthrate

When discussing economics or formulating policies, time is often used as a reference point to analyze markets or policies. Issues are categorized into short-term, mid-term, and long-term, and directions are set based on current and past data. The same applies to market analyses. However, among long-term issues, the most challenging is the low birthrate and aging population problem. Although it is said that hundreds of trillions of won have been spent, the actual related budget does not seem that large, and even though the statistics are clear, it is difficult to find a straightforward solution because alternatives must be proposed across the entire life cycle, including birth, childcare, education, university, military service, employment, and housing.

According to 2019 OECD member country data, the average total fertility rate is 1.61, and the average age at first childbirth is 29.3 years. Israel’s total fertility rate is 3.01, Mexico’s is 2.10, Turkey’s is 1.88, and most countries exceed 1.23. South Korea’s total fertility rate is 0.92, decreasing to 0.84 in 2020. The average age at first childbirth in South Korea also increased from 32.2 years in 2019 to 32.3 years last year, the highest among OECD countries.

Looking at birth order, out of a total of 272,000 births, 154,000 are first-borns, 96,000 are second-borns, and 23,000 are third-born or higher. Although the overall number is decreasing, the birth rate increase for second-borns is declining more than that for first-borns, and the decrease rates for second-borns and third-borns are almost similar.

Childbirth is an issue for all generations and concerns both men and women. Recently, the MZ generation (Millennials + Generation Z) often share childcare responsibilities. Both fathers and mothers accompany children when they leave daycare or school. While there is joy, the reality is that it is tight just to make a living through work. Although the whole family wishes for a second child, many give up because it is not realistically possible. The recent government policy easing the criteria for multi-child support from three children to two is a good policy. However, many problems still remain.

Income restrictions related to childbirth policies must be removed. Even in the case of national scholarships, some fall under income brackets, and income criteria exist for special housing supply for multi-child families. In other words, even if a family has three children, they are not automatically eligible for university tuition support or special supply of small apartments. In reality, there are few systems available related to childbirth. These include about a 10,000 won monthly electricity bill discount, up to 2 million won exemption on acquisition and registration taxes when buying a car, and discounts at public parking lots in Seoul.

Above all, the biggest issue is housing. As housing prices have doubled or tripled, rent and lease prices have also risen accordingly. When a child is born, the living space needs to be larger, which inevitably becomes a burden. Most use special housing supply for multi-child families or newlywed hope towns, but the special supply for multi-child families is unpopular even within the same apartment complex. Although there are some income restrictions, they are too narrow. Most units are 59㎡, about 18 pyeong. Looking at the floor plans, most have about two rooms. However, the special supply targets are mostly families with three or more children. Living with five people in two rooms might be possible when the children are very young, but once the first child starts school, living in two rooms becomes impossible.

In a situation where the economy is not good, real estate prices are hitting new highs daily, employment is difficult, and marriage is hard, many ask, “Why have children?” As young people give up on employment, the birthrate is likely to fall further. The future may look bleak, but shouldn’t we find the future that will lead our country within this?

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.