Government: "With 85% Vaccination Completion Rate, Delta Variant Can Be Overcome Without Masks or Business Restrictions" (Update)

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Seo So-jeong] The government has suggested that once the COVID-19 vaccination completion rate reaches 85%, even the highly transmissible Delta variant can theoretically be overcome without masks or gathering restrictions.

On the 14th, Kwon Jun-wook, Deputy Head of the Central Disease Control Headquarters, said at the regular COVID-19 response briefing, "When the vaccination completion rate reaches 85%, herd immunity will be about 80%. At that point, even the Delta variant can be overcome without wearing masks, gathering bans, or business restrictions."

Deputy Head Kwon explained, "If the basic reproduction number exceeds 1, the epidemic spreads. The original Wuhan strain of COVID-19 had a reproduction number of about 2.7, but recently the Delta variant has reached up to 5. A value of 5 means that one infected person can infect five others."

He added, "According to vaccination formulas, herd immunity effects hardly appear until the rate reaches the 30% range, but when the vaccination completion rate reaches about 55%, herd immunity approaches nearly 50%. If the basic reproduction number is 2.0, achieving 55% vaccination means the epidemic can be suppressed without other social distancing measures such as gathering bans or mask-wearing."

He continued, "To overcome a basic reproduction number of about 5.0, the vaccination completion rate must reach approximately 85%. At 85%, herd immunity reaches roughly 80%, providing a theoretical basis to overcome the Delta variant without masks or business restrictions."

Deputy Head Kwon emphasized, "Currently, South Korea's vaccination completion rate is rapidly increasing, so this is a decisive moment. The current plateau in case reduction is clearly due to the rapid rise in vaccination completion rates, so even if there are no other changes, vaccination remains the most important social distancing measure."

Regarding countries where cases are rising despite high vaccination rates, he noted, "In many exceptional cases, this occurs because social distancing was relaxed too early or there are densely populated groups where vaccination has not been carried out despite high overall vaccination rates."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.