Economic Recovery in Q4 Remains 'Cloudy'... "Most Industries See Limited Sales Growth"

Industrial Research Institute Business Indicator Survey (BIS)

[Sejong=Asia Economy Reporter Kwon Haeyoung] Domestic manufacturers forecast that the economic recovery will slow down in the fourth quarter, following the third quarter of this year. Most industries also expect limited sales growth.

The Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade announced on the 11th that the Business Survey Index (BSI) for the fourth quarter business conditions and sales outlook recorded 100 and 104, respectively, based on a survey of 1,000 domestic manufacturers. The BSI uses 100 as the baseline, with values closer to 200 indicating 'improvement' compared to the previous quarter, and values near 0 indicating 'deterioration.'

The fourth quarter business conditions outlook fell by 1 point compared to the previous quarter (101). This marks a decline for two consecutive quarters following the third quarter outlook (103→101). The sales outlook rose by only 1 point compared to the previous quarter (103). In the previous quarter, it had dropped by 4 points from 107 to 103. The domestic demand outlook remained steady at 102, the same as the previous quarter, but exports fell by 1 point to 104. Facility investment (103) and employment (103) remained above 100 for two consecutive quarters.

Looking at the fourth quarter sales outlook by industry, semiconductors (124), wireless communication devices (107), automobiles (104), petroleum refining (102), and secondary batteries (106) all exceeded 100. On the other hand, some industries such as home appliances (95), general machinery (99), and chemicals (98) fell below 100. Compared to the previous quarter, most industries showed a decline or remained flat, except for semiconductors (+12), automobiles (+1), and shipbuilding (+7).

The third quarter current BSI recorded 93 for both business conditions and sales, falling below 100 across the board. Compared to the previous quarter, the business conditions and sales outlook dropped by 4 points and 7 points, respectively. Domestic demand (91) declined, unlike the previous quarter, and exports (93) also fell below 100, marking a downturn after five quarters. By industry, sales BSI fell below 100 in many sectors including secondary batteries (90), steel (88), general machinery (85), petroleum refining (96), and chemicals (93), except for semiconductors (108). Home appliances (78), shipbuilding (80), automobiles (83), and textiles (84) also remained below 100, and compared to the previous quarter, all industries except semiconductors (+1) and displays (+5) declined.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.