D-2 to Confirm Presidential Candidates... Will It Be 'Lee Plus Lee' or 'Lee Minus Lee'?

Political Life at Stake for Lee Nak-yeon
Hope Rises with Increased Voter Turnout
Gyeonggi Governor Lee Jae-myung
Confident in Metropolitan Area Votes

Reconciliation a Challenge Regardless of Winner
Deepening Divisions Between Both Sides
Leadership Also Concerned About 'One Team' Unity in Main Election

[Asia Economy Reporters Oh Ju-yeon and Jeon Jin-young] The political fate of former Democratic Party leader Lee Nak-yeon will be decided in two days. The Democratic Party will finalize its presidential candidate on the 10th, and if Gyeonggi Province Governor Lee Jae-myung secures a ‘majority vote,’ former leader Lee will have to give up his presidential dream without even reaching a runoff. Lee has vowed to put ‘everything on the line’ in the remaining two days of campaigning, but political forecasts both inside and outside the party seem somewhat unfavorable to him. However, compared to the first and second rounds of the elector voting, there has been an increase in voter turnout, which Lee Nak-yeon’s camp interprets as a ‘positive sign,’ while reaffirming their determination by saying, ‘We won’t know until the lid is opened.’

[Image source=Yonhap News]

According to the Democratic Party on the 8th, the online voting rate for the third round of electors, which closed the previous night, was 74.70%, higher than the 70.36% in the first round and 49.68% in the second round. Looking only at the results of the second Super Week, Governor Lee Jae-myung (54.90%), who is ahead by about 200,000 votes compared to former leader Lee Nak-yeon (34.33%), needed only 170,000 more votes to advance directly to the final election without a runoff. However, this assumes a cumulative Democratic Party primary voter turnout of 65.96% so far; if the third round’s turnout raises the final turnout to 70%, the number of votes needed increases to 210,000 (based on a total elector count of 2.16 million with 1.51 million voters participating).

Lee Nak-yeon’s camp views this change as ‘doable’ and holds onto hope. In particular, they focus on the characteristics of the metropolitan area’s voter sentiment. They explain that, unlike the first and second rounds, the influence of the Honam region’s public opinion and the proximity to the recent Daejang-dong scandal controversy are factors. A representative from Lee Nak-yeon’s camp said, “The significance of the one win in Gwangju and Jeonnam could be special,” and added, “There is also hope that late consolidation occurred after seeing the Central region’s voting results.” Kim Jong-min, a member of the camp’s Political Reform Vision Committee, also interpreted on CBS Radio that day, “Governor Lee’s support rate is around 53-54%, and if it falls below 50%, a runoff election can be held.”

Governor Lee’s camp emphasized that he will receive the highest votes in his political hometown, Gyeonggi, and that the ‘Lee Jae-myung momentum’ will remain unshaken. On the morning of the same day, Ahn Min-seok, head of the special advisory group for Lee Jae-myung’s campaign, criticized former leader Lee’s camp, saying, “It’s like a desperate attempt to knock Lee Jae-myung off the tiger’s back.” He added, “We expect to gain overwhelming votes in Seoul and Gyeonggi at the end,” and predicted, “The result will be close to the 57% that candidate Moon Jae-in received.”

The remaining task after the final election is to reconcile conflicts between the two sides. During the primary process, Lee Nak-yeon’s camp made remarks toward Lee Jae-myung such as “He could become like MB (Lee Myung-bak)” and “We must prepare for the candidate’s possible arrest,” deepening emotional rifts. However, the Democratic Party leadership views the ‘one team’ approach for the final election as feasible. At the morning’s Supreme Council meeting, leader Song Young-gil said, “We are comrades and brothers,” and added, “All four candidates have been comrades who made history together with the Kim Dae-jung, Roh Moo-hyun, and Moon Jae-in administrations, so regardless of the outcome, I am confident we will accept it and become one team. The leadership will take the lead.” Such remarks, like Song’s pledge, also suggest a tension within the party anticipating conflicts after the final candidate is selected.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.