[Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club] North Korea's Potential Provocation Amid Reconciliation Gestures

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu, Military Specialist Reporter] Kim Jong-un, General Secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea and Chairman of the State Affairs Commission, stated that “there is neither purpose nor reason to provoke South Korea, nor any intention to cause harm,” but concerns remain high about the possibility of additional provocations.

According to North Korean media such as the Korean Central News Agency, Kim expressed dissatisfaction with the South Korean government's defense policy during his policy speech at the 5th session of the 14th Supreme People's Assembly, saying, “South Korea must quickly rid itself of the delusion that it should suppress North Korea’s provocations, as well as its severe sense of crisis and victim mentality.”

Although North Korea has left room for dialogue, distrust from the United States persists. On the 29th (local time), Sung Kim, U.S. Special Representative for North Korea, expressed concern over North Korea’s recent missile launches during a virtual press conference hosted by the Jakarta Foreign Correspondents Club (JFCC), pointing out that they “threaten neighboring countries.” Additionally, the United Nations Security Council is scheduled to hold a meeting on the 30th (local time) regarding North Korea’s missile launches, increasing the likelihood of a North Korean counter-response.

If North Korea continues military provocations, it may prepare submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs). At the 8th Party Congress held in January, North Korea presented strategic defense industry development goals including ▲ possession of nuclear submarines and underwater-launched nuclear strategic weapons ▲ operation of military reconnaissance satellites.

There were also indications that North Korea conducted a solid-fuel rocket engine test prior to the test launch of the hypersonic missile ‘Hwasong-8’ on the 28th.

James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS) at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies in the U.S. analyzed satellite images of the Magunpo rocket engine test site in Hamju County, South Hamgyong Province, North Korea, and stated, “It appears that a rocket engine combustion test was conducted on the horizontal engine test stand within the test site.” The Magunpo test site is equipped with a horizontal test stand for solid-fuel engines.

North Korea could also conduct intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) test launches disguised as military reconnaissance satellites. This is because the launch vehicle technology used to place satellites into orbit is similar to ICBM technology. This explains why North Korea has emphasized its intention to continue satellite launches under the banner of ‘peaceful space development.’ The United Nations Security Council prohibits North Korea from launching rockets using ballistic missile technology, including those carrying satellites.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.