청 "Show Willingness for Dialogue with North Korea Actively"... Will Inter-Korean Summit Gain Momentum?

"Restoration of Inter-Korean Communication Line, Minimal Scenario for Irrigation Improvement"... North Korea Still Unresponsive to Call Attempts

[Asia Economy reporters Ryu Jeong-min and Lee Ji-eun] The Blue House evaluated Kim Yo-jong, Deputy Director of the North Korean Workers' Party, issuing a statement suggesting the possibility of a South-North summit as "North Korea showing a more proactive openness to dialogue than in the past."

Park Soo-hyun, Senior Secretary for Public Communication at the Blue House, said in a CBS radio interview on the 27th, "(North Korea's response) is interpreted as somewhat different from the past." Instead of making specific demands such as halting joint South Korea-U.S. military exercises or lifting sanctions against North Korea as before, the North used expressions like ‘mutual respect,’ which is interpreted as broadening the possibility for dialogue.

Following President Moon Jae-in's proposal for a Korean Peninsula end-of-war declaration at the UN General Assembly on the 21st (local time), North Korea's responsive stance has sparked various interpretations within and outside the political circles. There are expectations that a big event that could change the fate of the Korean Peninsula will be arranged around the Beijing Winter Olympics in China next February, and even the possibility of a South-North summit within this year is being raised.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

However, the Korean Peninsula issue involves not only South and North Korea but also the political calculations of the U.S. and China, as well as the complex dynamics of international relations, meaning there are many hurdles to overcome.

Meanwhile, experts view North Korea's somewhat flexible attitude as not unrelated to its domestic situation. Former Minister of Unification Jeong Se-hyun analyzed on TBS radio on the 27th, "North Korea's internal economy is very difficult, so they are approaching in this way." This implies that if the North falls into the trap of an arms race with the South, its economic situation could worsen further, so a change in the situation was necessary.

What is noteworthy is that North Korea's change remains at the level of ‘words’ rather than actions for now. Park said, "(Restoring communication lines between the South and North and opening dialogue channels) is the minimum scenario for improving inter-Korean relations as the first step." However, North Korea, which had consistently remained unresponsive to attempts at communication during the joint South Korea-U.S. military exercises, continued its silence on the 27th as well.

The Ministry of Unification announced that the opening call at the Inter-Korean Joint Liaison Office did not take place at 9 a.m. that day. This is why opinions that the rosy blueprint surrounding the Korean Peninsula are premature are emerging. Professor Kim Yong-hyun of Dongguk University’s Department of North Korean Studies advised, "While an approach at the inter-Korean relations level is necessary, it is also important to approach the end-of-war declaration through cooperation among South Korea, the U.S., and China."

Experts predict that if the end-of-war declaration is pursued, a method similar to the 2003 Six-Party Talks could be employed. This involves simultaneous coordination between South and North Korea and between the U.S. and China based on U.S.-South Korea coordination. In the final stage, North Korea and the U.S. would discuss and ratify the agreement, and the end-of-war declaration is likely to be pursued in a similar format.

However, since the Six-Party Talks involved many participants, it inevitably took a long time, and it is noteworthy that President Moon’s term has only eight months left. Professor Yang Moo-jin of the University of North Korean Studies said, "South and North Korea and China positively evaluate the top-down approach, but U.S. President Joe Biden emphasizes a bottom-up approach," adding, "Since it involves multilateral discussions, it inevitably takes a long time."

In this context, the so-called ‘stepping stone theory’ circulating within and outside political circles is also attracting attention. It means that rather than aiming for achievements within President Moon’s term, a flexible approach is needed to reduce the burden on the next government.

Park also said, "A cautious attitude of firmly laying stepping stones one by one is ultimately the faster path," adding, "Even if a certain schedule is not reached within the Moon Jae-in administration’s term, wouldn’t it be good if trust between South and North Korea is built and progress is made regardless of who the next government is?"

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.