[AKY News Poll] Hong Joon-pyo and Yoon Seok-yeol Complete Two-Strong Structure... Opposition Primary Enters New Phase

Hong Jun-pyo Secures Support Comparable to Yoon Seok-yeol
Expansive Hong Jun-pyo, Cohesive Yoon Seok-yeol,
Victory Possible in Presidential Election with People Power Party's Own Candidates
Acceleration of Final Candidate Competitiveness

[Asia Economy Reporter Naju-seok] As Hong Joon-pyo, a member of the People Power Party, secures approval ratings comparable to former Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-youl as presidential candidates within the opposition, competition between the two to claim the final candidate spot is expected to intensify. With no strong candidates within the party, the People Power Party, which had been focusing on recruiting external figures like Yoon Seok-youl and Choe Jae-hyung, now has a one-two punch with Yoon and Hong. It is being evaluated that the People Power Party's primary phase has entered a new stage.

Hong, who had declared he would surpass former Prosecutor General Yoon around the Chuseok holiday, is tightening his offensive against his rival, buoyed by this momentum. Yoon, who had remained unresponsive to Hong's attacks so far, is also beginning to counterattack. For example, Yoon criticized Hong, who advocated the death penalty for heinous criminals, calling it a "Duterte-style" approach. Hong also argued that "the party should not get entangled in the candidate's personal issues" regarding the recently surfaced allegations of instigated accusations. Political circles expect that after the first cut-off on the 15th, as the main primary begins, the exchanges between the two sides will become more intense.

The key issue is how the People Power Party, which had been weak in internal candidate competitiveness to the extent of recruiting external presidential candidates, will view Hong's rise. If Hong, who claims to be the rightful heir of the People Power Party, judges that regime change is possible, whether the traditional People Power Party support base will move is crucial. In an interview with Asia Economy last July, Hong said, "The region where former Prosecutor General Yoon's approval rating is highest is Daegu and Gyeongbuk (TK), where people have a strong desire for regime change and rally behind a viable candidate. If they think it's not right, they withdraw within less than half a month."

What draws attention is that while Yoon shows strength among the existing People Power Party supporters, Hong shows strength among the party's weaker support base. Regarding Hong's strong performance in the People Power Party's traditionally weak regions, insiders and outsiders have claimed a 'reverse selection' theory, suggesting that supporters of other parties back weaker candidates to favor their own. In contrast, Hong refuted this by arguing it is 'crossover voting,' where Democratic Party supporters back the People Power Party's presidential candidate.

Meanwhile, the core support base of the People Power Party showed Yoon's advantage among those aged 60 and above and in Daegu and Gyeongbuk (TK). Yoon recorded 59.3% among those in their 60s, 60.4% among those 70 and older, and 63.1% in TK, while Hong scored 47.5% in their 60s, 50.5% in those 70 and older, and 49.3% in TK, showing relatively poor results. Due to these differing strengths and weaknesses, the two candidates clashed over issues such as introducing reverse selection prevention clauses that exclude Democratic Party supporters from polls. After controversy, the People Power Party's Election Commission decided not to apply the reverse selection prevention clause but to apply questions on competitiveness in the general election. Political circles widely agree that rule disputes over future questions and other matters are inevitable.

▶How was the survey conducted?

This survey was commissioned by Asia Economy to Win-Gi Korea Consulting and conducted nationwide among voters aged 18 and older on the 11th and 12th, with 1,022 respondents and an overall response rate of 7.4%. The survey method was 100% mobile ARS using virtual phone numbers, and the sample was extracted with weighted values by gender, age, and region based on the resident registration population as of the end of January 2021 by the Ministry of the Interior and Safety (cell weighting). The sampling error is ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For detailed survey information, refer to the Win-Gi Korea Consulting website or the Central Election Survey Deliberation Commission website.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.