Weekend Democratic Party's First Primary in Chungcheong, a Compass... '10 Percentage Points' Are Key

If Lee Jae-myung Surpasses Majority, 'Trend Theory' Spreads
Lee Nak-yeon Mobilizes Organization, Aims for Single-Digit Gap

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Park Cheol-eung] The first round of the Democratic Party's presidential primary tour voting will take place this weekend in the Chungcheong region. Since this vote will set the tone for the overall election, the key question is whether former Democratic Party leader Lee Nak-yeon can close the gap to Gyeonggi Province Governor Lee Jae-myung by about 10 percentage points. If not, Lee Jae-myung's dominant position may become solidified.

According to the Democratic Party on the 3rd, the results of the vote among delegates, party members with voting rights, and on-site voters who applied among the general and national party members in Daejeon and Chungnam will be announced on the 4th. On the 5th, the results from Sejong and Chungbuk will be disclosed. The results will be compiled by combining online voting, automated response service (ARS), and some on-site votes. The electorate in Daejeon and Chungnam numbers 52,820, and in Sejong and Chungbuk 23,803, most of whom are party members who pay dues. Although this is a small scale compared to the entire electorate expected to exceed 2 million, it can serve as a directional indicator as the first count.

Polling data continues to show a significant lead for Governor Lee. In a poll conducted by Research View from the 28th to the 31st of last month (nationwide 1,000 respondents, 4.4% response rate, 85% mobile and 15% landline, ARS automated response, margin of error ±3.1% at 95% confidence level), Democratic Party supporters showed 53% support for Governor Lee and 29% for former leader Lee among Democratic candidates. This is a meaningful figure considering the Democratic Party's primary system targets party members and supporters.

Regardless of party affiliation, among respondents from Daejeon, Sejong, and Chungcheong regions, Governor Lee received 33% support, while former leader Lee received 15%. This was the second highest level of support for Governor Lee after the Gwangju and Jeolla regions.

In a joint poll by Embrain Public, K-Stat Research, Korea Research, and Hankook Research (August 30 to September 1, nationwide 1,012 respondents, 100% mobile telephone interviews, 27.1% response rate, margin of error ±3.1% at 95% confidence level), Democratic Party supporters gave 50% support to Governor Lee and 26% to former leader Lee. In Daejeon, Sejong, and Chungcheong, the support rates were 30% and 11%, respectively.

If Governor Lee secures a majority vote in the first primary, which is the criterion for holding a runoff, it is highly likely that his dominant position will continue into the first Super Week on the 12th, which involves about 700,000 voters (results of national and general party member voting). Of course, various factors could influence the actual voting results among party members compared to the polls. The former leader Lee's campaign has been focusing on organizing votes centered on Chungcheong region lawmakers, aiming to narrow the gap to single digits.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.