Deleted 'Transfer of Wartime Operational Control' from the Defense Mid-term Plan

[Asia Economy Military Specialist Reporter Yang Nak-gyu, Reporter Lee Ji-eun] The government has officially confirmed that the transfer of wartime operational control (OPCON) cannot take place during President Moon Jae-in's term. It was confirmed that the OPCON transfer section was removed from the "2022?2026 Defense Mid-term Plan" announced by the Ministry of National Defense on the 2nd. The Defense Mid-term Plan is prepared and announced annually, and until last year, it included military force construction plans and defense budget plans based on the premise of OPCON transfer.

According to the Defense Mid-term Plan released that day, the military plans to invest a total of 315.2 trillion won over five years starting next year for ▲strengthening all-domain threat deterrence capabilities ▲building response capabilities for Defense Reform 2.0. The previous Defense Mid-term Plan explained this part as reflecting "essential requirements to achieve a ‘strong military, responsible defense,’ including ensuring the normal promotion of core forces to meet defense reform and OPCON transfer conditions."

This change appears related to the verification and evaluation status of OPCON transfer amid changes in the security environment. The ROK-US alliance initially set the OPCON transfer for April 2012 in 2007 but postponed it once to 2015 three years later. In 2014, they decided to pursue a "conditions-based" transfer without setting a specific timeline. The conditions refer to the three-stage capability verification of the ROK military for OPCON transfer. Accordingly, the ROK and US launched a special standing military committee in 2019 to evaluate these conditions, and immediately conducted the Initial Operational Capability (IOC) verification.

However, the verification and evaluation process has recently stalled. The 2nd stage Full Operational Capability (FOC) and 3rd stage Full Mission Capability (FMC) evaluations were not conducted during the ROK-US combined military exercise (21-2-CCPT) that ended on the 26th of last month. According to the "conditions-based OPCON transfer plan," only the 1st stage has been completed, and the 2nd and 3rd stage evaluations have not proceeded due to consecutive cancellations and reductions of exercises.

As a result, the OPCON transfer promised by President Moon during his term (until May 2022) has effectively been shelved. Even if the 2nd stage is completed through the first half of next year's ROK-US exercises, it is physically impossible to complete the 3rd stage verification within the term. Professor Kim Heung-kyu of the Department of Political Science and Diplomacy at Ajou University pointed out, "The biggest factor is that the transfer was fixed as conditions-based rather than time-based."

Experts believe that even if ROK-US exercises normalize under the next administration, it will be difficult to proceed with OPCON transfer as scheduled. This is because, amid escalating US-China conflicts, the US is likely to maintain OPCON to strengthen its influence on the Korean Peninsula, and North Korea continuously demands the suspension of ROK-US exercises as a condition for resuming North Korea-US or inter-Korean talks. Professor Lim Eul-chul of the Far East Institute at Gyeongnam National University said, "Compared to 2019, North Korea's nuclear threat has increased again, which could be another reason why the US does not want to hand over OPCON to South Korea."

Meanwhile, since the defense budget expansion plan set through 2026 is premised on OPCON transfer, there is a possibility of controversy over its justification. This year's Defense Mid-term Plan shows that the defense budget increased by 14.5 trillion won compared to last year. The defense budget is planned to increase annually, from 55.5 trillion won in 2022 to 70 trillion won in 2026. This is because securing advanced weapons is essential for OPCON transfer.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.