Lee Jae-myung, Securing Majority and Directly Advancing to the Final? ... Is There a Glimpse of Possibility Amid 'Reverse Voting' Variable

In Polls, Around 53% of Democratic Party Supporters Back Lee Jae-myung

The Democratic Party presidential primary candidates attended a YTN-hosted TV debate held on the 4th at the YTN Media Center in Mapo-gu, Seoul, and had a photo session. Candidates Jeong Se-gyun (from left), Lee Nak-yeon, Chu Mi-ae, Kim Du-kwan, Lee Jae-myung, and Park Yong-jin.

[Asia Economy Reporter Park Cheol-eung] The nationwide tour primary election to select the Democratic Party's presidential candidate is just one week away. The focus of attention is whether Gyeonggi Province Governor Lee Jae-myung, who is maintaining his position as the 'front-runner,' can secure a majority of the votes from the electorate. If he fails to do so, a runoff election will be held between the first and second place candidates, making it difficult to predict the outcome depending on the voting tendencies of supporters of the third to sixth place candidates. The Lee Jae-myung camp has expressed confidence, declaring they will achieve a majority vote. Looking at the poll results, this seems possible, but the participation of non-Democratic Party supporters in the electorate and 'reverse voting' could be variables.

According to a poll commissioned by Asia Economy and conducted by Win-G Korea Consulting on August 21-22, when asked only about Democratic Party candidates, 52.6% of Democratic Party supporters favored Governor Lee, 32.4% supported former Representative Lee Nak-yeon, and 5.5% backed former Minister of Justice Choo Mi-ae. Governor Lee has consistently received around 53% support from Democratic Party supporters in the last three similar polls, and other institutions' surveys show similar patterns.

There is a significant difference from the overall respondents' tally (Governor Lee 30.1%, former Representative Lee 22.5%, Representative Park Yong-jin 7.0%, former Minister Choo 6.6%, former Prime Minister Chung Sye-kyun 5.3%, Representative Kim Du-kwan 1.8%). (Survey conducted among 1,042 men and women aged 18 and over nationwide, 100% mobile phone virtual numbers, 7.0% response rate, ±3.1 percentage points at 95% confidence level. For detailed survey methodology, refer to Win-G Korea Consulting’s website or the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.)

Polls can be analyzed randomly or based on the respondents' declared party support. The Democratic Party primary electorate consists of delegates, party members with voting rights, and applicants among the general public and ordinary party members. The preferences of Democratic Party members or supporters largely determine the primary results. Predicting the primary outcome based solely on the overall respondents' support rates causes discrepancies. Notably, Governor Lee also records relatively high support among the reform-oriented Open Democratic Party and Justice Party supporters. The confidence of the Lee Jae-myung camp appears to stem from this public opinion situation.

However, the extent to which non-supporters are included among the Democratic Party electorate could be a variable. In polls asking only about Democratic Party candidates, a notable portion of People Power Party supporters choose other candidates to check the 'front-runner.' In fact, former Representative Lee received 19.7% support from People Power Party supporters, while Governor Lee received only 9%.

In a recent poll, the unfavorable rating of former Representative Lee among People Power Party supporters was slightly higher than that of Governor Lee. This suggests that many are making strategic responses rather than genuine support. Governor Lee’s 'majority' support among Democratic Party supporters in polls slightly exceeds 50%, which is not a stable margin.

Kim Jae-won, a Supreme Council member of the People Power Party, caused controversy last month by completing his application to join the Democratic Party electorate and urging people to "apply to the Democratic Party's national electorate and help with regime change," mentioning a specific candidate.

The Democratic Party has accepted applications for the electorate twice, exceeding 1.85 million people, of whom about 700,000 are delegates and party members with voting rights who are automatically counted. It is expected that the total will surpass 2 million after the third recruitment.

The Democratic Party will begin regional tour primaries starting with online voting for the Daejeon-Chungnam electorate on August 31. The regional schedule is as follows: Daejeon-Chungnam (September 4), Sejong-Chungbuk (September 5), Daegu-Gyeongbuk (September 11), Gangwon (September 12), Gwangju-Jeonnam (September 25), Jeonbuk (September 26), Jeju (October 1), Busan-Ulsan-Gyeongnam (October 2), Incheon (October 3), Gyeonggi (October 9), and Seoul (October 10). September 12, October 3, and October 10 are designated as 'Super Weeks,' during which the voting results of ordinary party members and the national electorate will be announced. Candidate speeches during the primary will be held online, but voting and counting will be conducted on-site in each region.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.