[Politics, That Day...] What Makes Korea's 'New Hampshire' Different from the US Presidential Election?

Results of the First Regional Primary for Ruling and Opposition Presidential Candidates, a Turning Point for the Momentum
Will the Winner of the First Regional Primary Reach the Final Destination? Lessons from the 2002 Jeju Primary

[Asia Economy Reporter Ryu Jeong-min]

Editor's Note‘Politics, On That Day...’ is a series that looks back on Korean politics through the ‘recollection of memories’ related to notable scenes, events, and figures.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

The reason why the voting results in the ‘New Hampshire’ region during the U.S. presidential primary elections attract attention is due to their political symbolism. Although the number of electoral votes is negligible compared to California, Texas, or New York, the symbolic significance is considerable.

It is because it offers an opportunity to visually confirm the election trend, as it is the region where the presidential primary begins.

Similarly, in Korea, attention is focused on the results of the region where the presidential primary starts. Candidates who rank first or perform well in the first primary can leverage this to build momentum. Conversely, candidates who experience unexpectedly poor results may have to revise their election strategies.

The difference between Korean presidential primaries and those in the U.S. is that the ‘region where the primary starts’ is not fixed. Depending on the political party and the election year, the first primary region can vary. The selection of the first primary region is important because it influences the election strategies of presidential candidate campaigns.

Strategies differ depending on whether to gain momentum from the start or gradually increase the intensity of momentum. For challengers, it is important to create a wave from the beginning. Candidates with relatively more leeway have more diverse options.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

In the 2022 presidential election, the Democratic Party of Korea starts its primary in Daejeon and Chungnam. If there were candidates based in Chungcheong, it would be an advantageous factor, but among the Democratic Party’s presidential primary finalists, there is no such figure. The situation might have been different if Yang Seung-jo, Governor of Chungnam Province, who had declared his candidacy, had not been eliminated in the cut-off.

The People Power Party is continuing discussions on the primary schedule and method, and depending on the outcome, candidates’ fortunes are expected to diverge.

Can the winner of the first regional primary ride the momentum to become the final winner? While it can signal a good start, it is unreasonable to conclude that the candidate is highly likely to be elected president. This is because regional voter sentiment and nationwide voter sentiment can differ.

A representative example is the Democratic Party’s Jeju regional presidential primary held on March 9, 2002. Major broadcasters reported the Jeju primary results under the headline ‘Unexpected 1st Place.’ At that time, opinion polls showed Lee In-je and Roh Moo-hyun competing for the lead. However, the protagonist of the first regional primary was a different figure.

Candidate Han Hwa-gap won first place with 175 votes. Candidate Lee In-je closely followed with 172 votes. Roh Moo-hyun received 125 votes, placing third, and Chung Dong-young came in fourth with 110 votes. The votes were divided among the four candidates.

The presidential primary candidates of the People Power Party are attending the 'People's Promise Vision Presentation' held at the Central Party Office in Yeouido, Seoul on the 25th, participating in the national ceremony. Photo by Dongju Yoon doso7@

From Han Hwa-gap’s perspective, the short-lived joy was a regretful point. If the second regional primary had been held some time after the Jeju primary, the ‘Jeju primary first-place effect’ could have been used as a political asset.

However, the primary was held in Ulsan the very next day, March 10, 2002. While Jeju symbolized the start of the regional primaries for major candidates, Ulsan was a turning point that influenced the primary landscape.

Han Hwa-gap, who had won first place in Jeju the day before, lost face by placing fourth in Ulsan. On the other hand, Roh Moo-hyun, who won first place in Ulsan, received the spotlight and emerged as the frontrunner.

In the Ulsan regional primary, Roh Moo-hyun received 298 votes. Kim Jung-kwon, whose political base was Daegu and Gyeongbuk, came in second with 281 votes. Lee In-je was third with 222 votes, Han Hwa-gap fourth with 116 votes, and Chung Dong-young fifth with 65 votes.

Combining the results of the Jeju and Ulsan regional primaries, Roh Moo-hyun led the intermediate tally with 423 votes, beating Lee In-je by 29 votes.

As the major parties’ primaries officially begin in September ahead of the 2022 presidential election, what scenes will unfold? How long will the joy of the first regional primary winner last? Will there be a dominant run from start to finish, or will a dramatic comeback story be created? Curiosity surrounding Korea’s ‘New Hampshire’ effect is expected to be resolved one by one starting in September.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.