IEA Lowers 2021 Oil Demand Forecast Due to Delta Variant Spread Impact

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Byunghee Park] The International Energy Agency (IEA) announced that global oil demand this year will be lower than initially expected due to the spread of the COVID-19 Delta variant.

According to the Wall Street Journal on the 12th (local time), the IEA lowered its forecast for global oil demand this year by 100,000 barrels per day in a report released that day, while raising its demand forecast for next year by about 200,000 barrels per day.

The IEA explained that some of the oil demand growth initially expected this year is likely to shift to next year. It noted that oil demand noticeably declined in the second half of this year due to the spread of the Delta variant.

The IEA expects that oil demand will only approach pre-COVID-19 pandemic levels by the second half of next year.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) also forecast in its report released that day that oil demand will approach pre-pandemic levels only in the second half of next year.

While the IEA and OPEC forecasts aligned regarding oil demand outlooks, their views on future supply forecasts diverged slightly.

The IEA slightly lowered its production forecast for non-OPEC+ countries this year. However, it raised the production forecast for next year by 100,000 barrels per day to 1.7 million barrels per day. OPEC+ is a coalition of 23 countries, including OPEC member countries and non-OPEC members such as Russia. There are 13 OPEC member countries and 10 non-OPEC member countries.

On the other hand, OPEC raised its production forecasts for non-OPEC countries for both this year and next year. OPEC increased its forecast for non-OPEC countries’ production next year by 840,000 barrels per day to 2.9 million barrels per day.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.