[Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club] North-South SLBM Competition... Who Will Succeed First?

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu, Military Specialist Reporter] The power struggle over the deployment of submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) between South and North Korea has intensified. This is because the South Korean military has made SLBM deployment possible with the commissioning of the first 3,000-ton class submarine (Dosan Ahn Changho) independently designed and built. Since neither South nor North Korea has fully completed the deployment after successful test launches of SLBMs, attention is focused on who will succeed in development first.

According to the military on the 14th, the Dosan Ahn Changho is equipped with six vertical launch tubes using the cold launch method. This is why it is considered a key deterrent missile force against North Korea. However, the military has not officially confirmed whether the submarine is equipped with vertical launch tubes, their diameter or length, or the development of SLBMs.

To successfully equip SLBMs on a submarine, test launches must proceed in multiple stages. The SLBM possessed by the South Korean military is one of the Hyunmoo-4 series missiles. The Defense Acquisition Program Administration (ADD) is developing the Hyunmoo-4 missile, which includes the ship-to-ground ballistic missile ‘Hyunmoo 4-2’ and the submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) ‘Hyunmoo 4-4’.

Typically, SLBM tests proceed in the order of ground ejection tests, underwater ejection tests, and submarine launches. Recently, the military is known to have successfully completed underwater ejection tests of SLBMs on a barge. It is expected that submarine launches will take place off the East Coast within this year. Until now, ADD has conducted missile launches at the Anheung test site at high angles, but the range could not exceed 400 km, limiting long-range missile launches. However, if launched from the East Coast, the test launch range will exceed 800 km to Ieodo, making it sufficient. Once SLBM deployment on the Dosan Ahn Changho is completed, South Korea will become the eighth country in the world to possess core SLBM technology.

North Korea unveiled the Pukguksong-5 at the military parade commemorating the 8th Party Congress in January. It is evaluated to have an increased warhead weight compared to the ‘Pukguksong-4ㅅ’ (Siot) revealed at the Workers’ Party’s 75th anniversary parade last October.

The SLBM unveiled by North Korea at that time clearly showed the inscription ‘Pukguksong-5 ㅅ.’ This indicates it is an improved version of the previously revealed ‘Pukguksong-4ㅅ.’ North Korea test-fired the Pukguksong-1 (estimated range 1,300 km) from a Sinpo-class submarine in August 2016 and conducted underwater launch tests of the Pukguksong-3 (estimated range 2,000 km) in October 2019. The Pukguksong-5ㅅ is analyzed to have a longer warhead length than the Pukguksong-4ㅅ revealed last year, moving toward a multiple warhead type. If it is mounted on a nuclear submarine and deployed in actual combat, it could become a ‘game changer’ that shakes the foundation of the security environment on the Korean Peninsula.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.