[Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club] North Korea Provocation Scenario... Attempted Reversal via Communication Channel?

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu, Military Specialist Reporter] On the 11th, North Korea mentioned an "enormous security crisis" and announced military provocations. Inside and outside the military, there is speculation that North Korea may escalate the level of provocation by following the statement with short-range missile launches and test launches of new submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs).

Kim Yong-chol, head of the Workers' Party United Front Department, criticized the South Korea-U.S. joint military exercises in a statement that day, emphasizing, "Through a wrong choice, they will make us feel moment by moment how close we are to an enormous security crisis." There is no difference from the statement made the previous day by Kim Yo-jong, deputy director of the Workers' Party.

North Korea has used joint exercises as a pretext to raise tensions and employed a "brinkmanship" tactic for negotiations. Right after President Biden's inauguration in January, North Korea test-fired two cruise missiles. However, when there was no change in the U.S. strategy toward North Korea, they launched ballistic missiles timed with Biden's first press conference. This was interpreted as a kind of "Biden testing" starting with relatively light provocations and escalating.

If North Korea proceeds with military provocations this time, it is highly likely that they will first launch a set of three new weapons: new tactical guided missiles (tactical guided weapons, North Korean version of Iskander), super-large multiple rocket launchers, and the North Korean version of ATACMS (Army Tactical Missile System). Internally, test launches to reduce the interval between consecutive missile launches are also necessary. There is also speculation that coastal artillery firing drills, suspended under the September 19 military agreement, could be resumed.

Following this, they may conduct ejection tests of the new SLBMs revealed at last year's and this year's military parades or expose related preparatory signs. Since Chairman Kim emphasized the development of hypersonic weapons and tactical nuclear weapons at the 8th Workers' Party Congress held earlier this year, evidence is needed to showcase these advancements.

Some analysts assess that the possibility of directly proceeding to "high-intensity" military provocations such as SLBM or intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) launches is low. Although ballistic missiles violate United Nations Security Council resolutions regardless of range, in the case of "short-range" missiles, the U.S. and the UN have generally refrained from direct responses such as additional sanctions. From North Korea's perspective, this is a "less burdensome" means.

In particular, North Korea is currently experiencing trade suspensions due to the prolonged COVID-19 pandemic and worsening food shortages, and it is known that recent flood damage in the South Hamgyong Province area is quite severe. In this situation, military actions crossing the so-called "red line" could lead to additional sanctions against North Korea, causing the worst consequences for themselves.

A North Korea expert said, "Since the statement by Deputy Director Kim Yo-jong, North Korea has not responded to the inter-Korean communication channel that was restored two weeks ago from the afternoon of the previous day," adding, "North Korea tried to work for peace on the Korean Peninsula, but South Korea and the U.S. went ahead with joint exercises, so we had no choice but to respond accordingly," indicating a strong nuance of forced counteraction.

It is said that after temporarily creating a reconciliation mood over the unavoidable South Korea-U.S. joint military exercises, tensions were raised again to maximize the shock of the "provocation."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.