Record High Summer Power Demand This Year... Concerns Over 'Blackout'

Peak Season Reserve Rate Stabilizes at 4%, Half of the 10% Safety Threshold
Power Supply in Critical Condition Due to Coal and Nuclear Phase-Out

On the 22nd, when a heatwave advisory was issued for Seoul and the metropolitan area, citizens were moving along Wangsimni-ro in Seongdong-gu, Seoul. Photo by Jinhyung Kang aymsdream@

[Sejong=Asia Economy Reporters Haeyoung Kwon and Sangdon Joo] This summer, electricity demand is expected to soar to an all-time high due to the heatwave and economic recovery following COVID-19. However, the electricity reserve margin, which indicates the surplus power supply, is projected to fall to the 4% range?half of the stable threshold (10%)?marking the lowest level since 2013, raising alarms over power supply and demand. Criticism has emerged that the government may have failed to secure sufficient power supply by prematurely shutting down coal-fired power plants and nuclear reactors under the nuclear phase-out and coal phase-out policies. Consequently, the shortfall caused by nuclear power plant shutdowns may have to be compensated by coal and LNG power generation to meet the heatwave-driven electricity demand, potentially undermining carbon neutrality efforts.

According to the 'Summer Electricity Supply and Demand Outlook and Measures' confirmed on the 1st by the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy at a current affairs coordination meeting chaired by Prime Minister Kim Boo-kyum, the maximum electricity demand this summer is forecasted at 90.9 gigawatts (GW) under the 'base scenario' and 94.4 GW under the 'upper scenario.' The government provides two projections considering temperature changes, applying 29.4°C for the base scenario and 30.2°C for the upper scenario this year. The base scenario indicates that at 29.4°C, the maximum electricity demand will reach 90.9 GW, the second highest ever recorded. The upper scenario represents an all-time high.

With electricity usage surging due to air conditioners and other devices, the electricity reserve margin is expected to drop to between 4.2% and 9.1% during the fourth week of July and the second week of August. The electricity reserve margin is the difference between power supply capacity and maximum electricity demand. Generally, a reserve margin above 10% is considered stable, but in the fourth week of July, the reserve margin is projected to be only 4.2% (reserve capacity of 4 GW) under the upper scenario. If the reserve capacity falls below 5.5 GW, a power supply and demand alert could be issued for the first time since 2013. The energy industry is concerned about the possibility of a 'blackout' (large-scale power outage) if the heatwave persists.

Experts are focusing more on the shortage of power supply than on demand increases. They point out that the government's nuclear and coal phase-out policies have led to the early closure of existing coal-fired power plants and delays in the operation of new nuclear reactors such as Shin Hanul Unit 1, tightening the power supply and demand balance.

In particular, Shin Hanul Unit 1, a 1.4 GW-class reactor whose construction was practically completed in April last year, has not received an operating license for over a year. With a 99% completion rate, it could start operation immediately after fuel loading and help alleviate this summer's power supply shortage, but its operation has been delayed due to the nuclear phase-out policy. Professor On Ki-woon of Soongsil University's Department of Economics said, "Without extending the lifespan of nuclear power plants and reducing coal power generation, the reserve margin during peak electricity demand has significantly decreased. Increasing the utilization rate of nuclear power, which serves as the base load, could create more reserve capacity."

The Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy reportedly considered reactivating coal-fired power plants such as Samcheonpo Units 1 and 2 and Boryeong Units 1 and 2, which were permanently shut down in May, to prepare for the summer power supply shortage. A ministry official stated, "If maintenance on currently malfunctioning or stopped power plants is completed as scheduled, power supply capacity is expected to increase. We will do our best to secure additional reserve resources to prepare for the decline in the electricity reserve margin and ensure stable power supply."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.