The Political Polarization in the U.S. Created by Trump... Swing Districts Halved

Floating Population Areas: 26 Locations in 2012 → 16 Locations in 2020

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Kim Suhwan] In the United States, where political polarization was ongoing, the consolidation of left and right camps has intensified even more after the administration of former President Donald Trump.

The Cook Political Report, a U.S. political analysis organization, releases reports analyzing voter tendencies after each election. According to their report, the number of swing districts significantly decreased in the 2020 elections across federal, state, and congressional levels. This means that the number of voters who voted for politicians from different parties, crossing between the Democratic and Republican parties, has declined. As a result, voters have become more consolidated into left and right camps, causing the disappearance of the moderate middle ground.

Previously, during the 1976 presidential election, there were 124 House districts nationwide where the party of the president elected by local voters differed from the party of the House representative elected. In other words, voters in these districts exhibited the characteristics of so-called “swing voters” who alternated their votes between the two major parties in presidential and congressional elections.

However, the recent presidential election showed the opposite trend. Only 16 districts had voters who chose different parties in the presidential and House elections, as in the example above.

Among these 16 districts, 9 were areas where President Joe Biden won but a Republican House member was elected, and the remaining 7 were districts where voters chose former President Trump but elected a Democratic House member.

In the 2012 election, there were 26 such swing districts.

As a result, the significant reduction in swing districts has led to stronger voter consolidation into each party, further intensifying political polarization in the United States.

Foreign media especially analyzed that former President Trump accelerated this phenomenon. Bloomberg News reported, “Former President Trump promoted this political conflict within the United States.”

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

The Cook Political Report, which released this report, also analyzed that “House elections have shifted from candidate competition to a confrontation solely between party supporters.”

Especially with the upcoming congressional redistricting, there is a strong expectation that states will engage in so-called “gerrymandering” to draw districts favorable to specific parties, which will likely further reduce swing districts.

In Texas and Georgia, representative conservative-leaning states, the influx of younger voters and the increase in the Black population over the past decade have expanded support for the progressive Democratic Party.

Similarly, Hispanic voters, who were traditionally progressive, leaned toward former President Trump in the last presidential election, helping secure his victory in Florida.

Thus, these demographic changes have somewhat moderated the political bias of these regions.

However, with nationwide redistricting occurring this year, each party is expected to push for gerrymandering in their favor again, which is likely to deepen political polarization in U.S. elections.

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

Ultimately, foreign media suggest that the solution to this phenomenon lies in President Biden himself focusing on promoting bipartisan policies that both parties can support to gather their backing.

Bloomberg News stated, “Polls show that Republican voters support President Biden’s economic policies more than those of former President Trump,” adding, “President Biden should leverage this strength to focus on garnering broad support.”

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.