Left-Wing Regime Change vs. First Right-Wing Female President... Peru Presidential Runoff on the 6th

Two Candidates Standing at Ideological Opposites... Aftershocks Expected Regardless of Winner
Poll Gap 1-2%P 'Neck-and-Neck Race'

Keiko Fujimori (left) and Pedro Castillo (right) [Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Kim Suhwan] The runoff election for Peru's presidential race is just five days away. With both candidates in the runoff facing significant mutual antipathy and standing at ideological opposites, the aftermath of this election is expected to be turbulent regardless of who wins.

The Peruvian presidential runoff is scheduled to take place on the 6th (local time). Pedro Castillo of the Free Peru Party and Keiko Fujimori of the Popular Force Party, who secured first and second place respectively in the first round of voting in April, will face off.

Given their stark ideological differences and high personal disapproval ratings, this election is anticipated to be a choice of the 'lesser evil.'

Populist 'Castillo' with Almost No Political Experience

First, Pedro Castillo, the candidate from the left-wing Free Peru Party, is a rural elementary school teacher with almost no political background. Born in the rural area of Cajamarca in northern Peru, he majored in education and taught children at his hometown elementary school for 25 years.

He gained recognition by leading a nationwide teachers' strike in 2017 demanding better working conditions.

His only prior political experience was running unsuccessfully for mayor of a small local town in 2002. Eighteen years later, in October last year, Castillo declared his candidacy and ran as the Free Peru Party's nominee.

Among 18 candidates in this election, Castillo initially had single-digit support but surged in the weeks leading up to the election, surprisingly securing first place with 19% in the first round on April 11.

This unexpected surge by Castillo has alarmed Peru's right-wing political circles and conservative forces, according to foreign media. Particularly, Castillo's party, Free Peru, advocates Marxism-based policies such as significant tax increases, nationalization, and a new constitution with many leftist ideological elements, which has heightened tensions within the conservative camp.

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

Especially amid Peru's prolonged economic downturn in recent years and the plummeting value of the sol, conservatives fear that a radical left-wing government would worsen the country's crisis. The recent dollar-to-sol exchange rate has soared to 3.86 sols, marking about a 15% increase since January last year. Additionally, the COVID-19 pandemic has been cited as a factor exacerbating Peru's economic crisis.

According to foreign reports, billboards in various streets of Lima, Peru's capital, reportedly display messages presumed to reference Castillo, such as "Do you want to live like in Venezuela?"

However, with about one-third of Peru's population classified as impoverished, economic polarization has become a pressing issue, leading citizens to view Castillo as a leader who might bring new hope. Notably, studies show that the COVID-19 pandemic increased the poverty rate by about 10% of the total population last year, further deepening the wealth gap.

Political Establishment Figure and Daughter of Former President 'Fujimori'

Unlike the outsider Castillo, Fujimori is the leader of the influential conservative Popular Force Party and a three-time presidential candidate.

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

She is the eldest daughter of Alberto Fujimori, a Japanese-Peruvian former president who ruled from 1990 to 2000, and served as Peru's First Lady at age 19 following her parents' divorce.

Former President Fujimori is currently serving a 25-year prison sentence for human rights violations and other charges, and his daughter Keiko Fujimori, often labeled as the 'dictator's daughter,' is also under indictment for corruption.

Having narrowly placed second in the runoff elections of both 2011 and 2016, she was initially seen as unlikely to win this election but demonstrated late momentum, securing 13.4% in the first round and advancing to her third runoff.

With a long-standing political career and a platform promoting pro-business and market economy policies, she stands as the only viable challenger to Castillo in the runoff.

A former minister stated, "Castillo's rise poses a significant threat to the business community and the upper class, who are giving unconditional support to Fujimori."

However, Fujimori herself suffers from high disapproval due to her father's human rights abuses and corruption record, as well as her own corruption allegations.

A local political analyst described this election as a "contest between the worst candidates," adding, "The winner will be the one who is the lesser of two evils."

Both Castillo and Fujimori seem aware of this atmosphere and are actively appealing to 'anti-communist' and 'anti-Fujimorist' sentiments respectively.

If Castillo wins, Peru will see a left-wing regime change, strengthening the Latin American leftist bloc. If Keiko Fujimori wins, she will become Peru's first female president and the first president from a father-daughter lineage.

Polls Show a 'Neck-and-Neck' Race... Undecided Voters Reach 20%

Current polls indicate an extremely close runoff race.

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

Castillo, who led the first round, is also ahead in runoff polls, but the gap has narrowed to about 1-2 percentage points recently. According to a poll released by El Comercio, Castillo is predicted to receive 51.1% of the vote, while Fujimori is expected to get 48.9%.

Moreover, with less than a week remaining before the runoff, about 20% of respondents have yet to decide which candidate to support. The candidate who wins over these undecided voters is likely to win the presidential election.

Attention is also focused on whether Peru's political turmoil over recent years will calm down following this election.

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

Since the 2016 presidential election, Peru has seen as many as four presidents take office.

Pablo Kuczynski, who defeated Fujimori in the 2016 election, was impeached in 2018 over a corruption scandal. His successor, former Vice President Mart?n Vizcarra, was also impeached in September last year amid corruption allegations.

Manuel Merino, who filled Vizcarra's vacancy, resigned after just five days amid intense protests against his impeachment. Francisco Sagasti has been serving as interim president since then.

The winner of the runoff on the 6th will take office on July 28, succeeding President Sagasti, and will lead Peru for the next five years.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.