Japanese Research Institute: "Vaccine Effectiveness Will Appear Only After the Olympics End"

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Kwon Jae-hee] As the Japanese government is making every effort to increase the COVID-19 vaccination rate ahead of the Tokyo Olympics, there is a forecast that the definite effects will only appear after the Olympics conclude.

On the 1st, Yomiuri Shimbun reported citing Nomura Research Institute, a leading private research institute in Japan, that if COVID-19 vaccinations proceed at the pace of 1 million people per day as targeted by Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga, about 40% of the total population will have completed two doses, and the point at which the decrease in new infections becomes clear is expected to be in early September.

Nomura Research Institute made this forecast based on the observation that in the United States and Israel, where 40% of the population had completed vaccinations, the trend of declining new infections became evident.

While other measures such as the declaration of a state of emergency or entry restrictions may also be variables, the overall analysis suggests that the effect of suppressing the spread of COVID-19 through vaccination will become clear after September.

The Tokyo Olympic opening ceremony is scheduled for the 23rd of next month, and the closing ceremony for August 8.

The Paralympics opening ceremony is on August 24, and the closing ceremony on September 5, meaning the vaccination effects are expected to be felt only after these events conclude.

Currently, Japan is vaccinating 400,000 to 500,000 people per day, and if the pace reaches 1 million per day after the 17th of this month, about 40% of the total population is expected to have completed vaccination by September 9.

Yomiuri reported that if the maximum daily vaccination number remains at 800,000, the point at which 40% complete vaccination will be delayed to October 1.

Even if the vaccination speed is increased to 1 million per day, Nomura Research Institute predicts that by the scheduled opening ceremony on the 23rd of next month, only about 20.9% will have completed vaccination, and the number of confirmed cases may remain at a high level.

The Japanese government is promoting the establishment of large-scale vaccination centers across the country to accelerate the vaccination pace.

Additionally, various routes such as setting up vaccination centers in companies and universities within this month are being attempted.

However, Tokyo Shimbun pointed out that in a situation where reservation information is not smoothly shared, local governments, which are responsible for the core of vaccination, face increased burdens in verifying to prevent double bookings, causing side effects.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.