Moon Jung-in: "North Korea More Likely to Contact South Korea Than the U.S."

[Asia Economy Reporter Yoo In-ho] Moon Jung-in, Chairman of the Sejong Institute, stated on the 25th, "North Korea may contact South Korea before the United States to understand the intentions behind the U.S. policy toward North Korea."

At a virtual forum co-hosted by the Sejong Institute and the U.S. Institute of Peace (USIP) on the same day, Chairman Moon said, "I believe North Korea will respond to the U.S. request for dialogue this time," adding, "If North Korea does not engage directly with the U.S., it may come to South Korea."

Chairman Moon emphasized, "The South Korea-U.S. joint statement did not specify what the U.S. can offer to North Korea, so North Korea will be very eager to hear what was discussed at the South Korea-U.S. summit," and added, "I hope North Korea will reactivate the inter-Korean hotline."

However, Chairman Moon predicted that even if North Korea responds to the dialogue request, there will be difficulties in advancing negotiations.

He identified the upcoming South Korea-U.S. joint military exercises, expected in August, as the first obstacle. Chairman Moon pointed out, "The first litmus test is whether North Korea will respond to the dialogue request and whether South Korea and the U.S. will conduct joint exercises," adding, "If the joint exercises proceed, the dialogue could be interrupted."

He also mentioned that President Joe Biden expressed support for inter-Korean dialogue, engagement, and cooperation in the South Korea-U.S. joint statement, forecasting, "If North Korea comes forward for dialogue, the government might attempt cooperative projects with North Korea."

However, he viewed that once the presidential election season begins in the second half of this year, it will be difficult to secure momentum for inter-Korean cooperation. Chairman Moon said, "President Moon has about 11 months left in his term, but President Biden is just starting, so there is a 'mismatch in political cycles,'" adding, "It will be very difficult, but still better than doing nothing."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.