[The Editors' Verdict] Will North Korea Policy Become the Biggest Variable in the Presidential Election?

Park Sang-byeong / Political Commentator

President Moon Jae-in and U.S. President Joe Biden held their first summit in Washington. The outcome was better than expected. The South Korea-U.S. alliance remained steadfast, and partnerships on economic cooperation, semiconductors, and climate change were reaffirmed. Notably, during the COVID-19 pandemic, the U.S. directly provided vaccines to the South Korean military, and the two countries agreed to establish a comprehensive vaccine partnership, which is highly commendable. Furthermore, the “South Korea-U.S. Missile Guidelines,” which had restricted South Korea’s missile sovereignty since 1979, were officially abolished. This is also a welcome development as it expands the scope of military sovereignty.

However, the most striking aspect was the opening of “new possibilities” in security, including North Korea policy. The two leaders stated in a joint declaration that they “reaffirmed the shared belief that diplomacy and dialogue based on existing inter-Korean and North Korea-U.S. agreements, such as the 2018 Panmunjom Declaration and the Singapore Joint Statement, are essential to achieving complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and establishing lasting peace.” By confirming that the North Korea-U.S. and inter-Korean dialogues from the previous Trump administration remain valid, they reinforced President Moon’s North Korea policy.

That is not all. President Biden appointed Sung Kim, the Acting Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs and a negotiator, as the U.S. Special Representative for North Korea Policy, overseeing the North Korea nuclear issue, as if to show a clear signal. Sung Kim was a figure who led a relatively rational roadmap during the North Korea nuclear negotiations. Therefore, this appears to be a message of trust to President Moon and respect for the efforts made by North Korean General Secretary Kim Jong-un. As is well known, President Moon has devoted considerable effort to the North Korea nuclear issue since the beginning of his term. Because of this, there has been criticism that domestic issues were sidelined and disasters such as real estate policies were not prevented. Nevertheless, opening the way for the South Korea-U.S.-North Korea summit is an achievement and an unprecedented event in constitutional history. However, there are no clear tangible results yet. All three parties?South Korea, North Korea, and the U.S.?seem to be reverting to the past atmosphere. If the carefully crafted gamble ultimately results in a “failure of North Korea policy,” it will inevitably be a source of frustration for President Moon.

However, the possibility that this South Korea-U.S. summit could be a “turning point” cannot be ruled out. President Moon surely wishes to be recorded in history as the leader who resolved the North Korea nuclear issue. If he achieves that alone, there will be no need to worry about a lame-duck period at the end of his term. He has already handed over many domestic affairs to Prime Minister Kim Boo-kyum and the ruling party. The ongoing COVID-19 prevention and vaccination efforts are also going well. Therefore, it is highly likely that from now on, all efforts will be concentrated on resolving the North Korea nuclear issue, a long-standing and painful challenge, and establishing a peace regime on the Korean Peninsula.

For President Moon, the North Korea nuclear issue could be a do-or-die final gamble. President Biden has already lent his support. North Korea cannot just waste time with reckless remarks toward President Moon, who has about a year left in his term. Therefore, the next year could be the final “golden time” for South Korea, North Korea, and the U.S. If the matter is successfully resolved, the ripple effects of the North Korea nuclear negotiations will dominate the entire domestic political landscape. The schedule for the next presidential election will merely be an extension of that. Of course, overinterpretation should be avoided. If North Korea does not respond, that will be the end. In that case, the key issue will be whether President Moon can produce tangible results this time. Suddenly, a huge variable is emerging just before the presidential election. There is still enough time. The Democratic Party of Korea, quietly pleased, and the People Power Party, which may be sidelined, seem to have strangely intersecting expressions.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.